Well, gold remains the big story from global markets, having topped the $US1300 an ounce mark on Friday night, our time, and a level many analysts had not expected to be reached until later in the year.
Comex December gold hit a record $US1,301.60 an ounce, then retreated from that high as Wall Street rallied, with a 2% gain for the day and a bit more for the week.
The benchmark December contract settled up $US1.80 at $US1,298.10 an ounce.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $US1,297.30 an ounce.
Now that the once unreachable $US1,300 an ounce has been breached, we are now getting $US1350 and $US1400 an ounce as price targets from some gold bugs.
There’s even been talk of $US2,300 an ounce as a longer term target.
But remember the gains in Australian dollars are being chewed up by the rise in the currency.
At the close on Saturday of $US1298.10, the Aussie dollar at 95.92 US meant the price was just $A1,353.35 an ounce.
Hardly a gain at all and well under the all time high in Australian dollars of more than $A1500 an ounce in early 2009 (when the US dollar price was under $US1,000 an ounce)..
In fact if you bought gold in 2009 and held on to the physical metal, the chances are you are now losing money.
So much for gold as a store of value or a hedge. Losses are not sound hedges. But if you are dealing solely in US dollars, good on you.
And just remember the price surge underlines the rightness of a host of gold miners (Newcrest and Lihir for example) that have quit their gold hedge books, at great cost.
Gold at these levels and the strength of the Aussie dollar would probably have crippled both companies, or raised speculation that they might be following the ill-fated Pasminco down the plug hole. (It was over hedged.)
Silver also surged to another round of 30 year highs last week after reaching that level the Friday before.
Gold has risen more than 4% so far this month and hit record highs in six out of the last seven sessions. Gold rose 1.6% last week.
Silver is up more because of the lower price and greater leverage.
It finished the week with a 2.7% gain, closing up 19c, or 0.9%, to $US21.39 an ounce.
Meanwhile, copper hit a fresh five-month best, ending the week 2.8% higher.
Comex December copper futures ended 3c higher at $US3.62 per pound.
That’s the highest settlement for copper since early April.
Copper is up 34% over the past year.
And oil rose on Friday, marking the strongest weekly gains in two months as data showing a rise in business spending lifted markets.
But it was the rising weakness in the US dollar that drove most of the gains for oil (and other commodities).
Talk of hopes for a stronger economy based on Friday’s data was just pie in the sky stuff.
Oil and all other commodities remain the big counter-US dollar play.
Nymex November crude futures rose $US1.31, or 1.7%, to $US76.49 a barrel.
For the week, oil rose $US2.83, or 3.84%.
In London , ICE Brent November crude rose 76c to settle at $US78.87 a barrel on Friday, having traded as high as $US79.40.
The idea that stronger demand will follow the weak data from last week was made even more laughable by the latest weekly inventory figures for America.
The US Energy Information Administration said that total petroleum inventories have soared and last week reached their highest since weekly records began in 1990.
That’s at the end of a US summer and the start of a northern autumn and winter when demand should be rising for heating oil and other fuels. It is not.
Since May, crude prices have been stuck in a band between the $US64.24 intraday low on May 20 and the 2010 peak of $US87.15 set on May 3.
That’s despite obvious strong demand from China, India and much of the developing world.
Footnote: what has the level of the Amazon River in Brazil to do with the price of some major commodities?
Well, according to Bloomberg, it’s partly why sugar, coffee, orange juice and soybean prices remain firm to rising.
"Drought in Brazil, the world’s biggest producer of coffee, sugar and oranges, is harming crops and drying the Amazon River to its lowest in 47 years.
"The Amazon’s 18-meter (59-feet) level on Sept. 20 was the least since 1963, disrupting transportation of food, fuel and medicines in northern Brazil, the National Water Agency said in an e-mailed statement.
"Growers in Brazil’s Southeast expect the drought will pare output of the nation’s key commodities.
"Sugar rose to the highest price in seven months in New York today and has jumped 29 percent this month because of concern the South American drought threatens global supplies.
"Orange juice gained 15 percent this month and coffee soared 33 percent this year.
"The dry weather will persist at least until mid- October, said Willians Bini, a meteorologist at Sao Paulo-based weather forecaster Somar Meteorologia."
"Soybean futures have risen 11 percent in Chicago this month on concern dryness in Brazil and Argentina may delay planting and reduce sowing of the oilseed."
Sugar closed at 24.40 USc a pound, up 3.3% on the day. Soybeans rose 3% to end at $US11.26 a bushel. Wheat and corn prices were also firmer.
