Two surveys out yesterday confirm that Australian job growth continues, via the internet, but at a slower pace than in previous month, while newspapers are now suffering another fall in employment ads.
The surveys, from the ANZ, and a recruitment firm which issues the monthly Advantage Jobs Index, show that all the growth in September was on the net, as it continues to be the media of choice for more and more employers.
Overall, the ANZ job advertisements index rose 0.7% in September, after a 2.4% (revised down from 2.5%) rise in August, thanks to a 0.8% rise in net ads, which offset a larger 1.9% fall in newspaper ads.
Despite the rise in headline job ad numbers, there was a slowing in net ads: they were up 2.6% in August, while newspaper ads were reported as being up 1.5% in the same month.
Around 177,380 positions were advertised weekly last month, according to the ANZ’s figures. September’s rise puts the number of jobs up 33% on a year ago, but still well under the all time high.
The 1.9% fall in newspaper jobs ads was the first decline in three months, which means that this sector continues to lose share of the job ads industry.
In fact newspaper job ads are almost irrelevant as an indicator.
“Continued growth in job advertisements over September increases the likelihood that the unemployment rate will fall below 5 per cent by year-end,” said ANZ’s chief economist Warren Hogan said in the statement yesterday.
“This will see skills shortages emerge and will put upward pressure on wages growth ahead of the expected peak in Australian economic growth,” he said.
The market is expecting the official jobless rate to remain at 5.1 per cent and show the creation of 20,000 jobs in September when last month’s employment data is released tomorrow.
Mr Hogan said he expected the labour market to tighten further and for wages pressure to intensify as the Australian economy posts growth into 2011-12.
The key findings from the Advantage job ads index showed a 3.3% rise in online ads in September, with the largest rise in part time (3.4%) and full time (3.2%) compared to temporary (1.8%).
But while job ads were solid, the rest of the service sector was weak, according to the latest performance survey.
Activity in the services sector slowed for the fifth straight month in September, as nervous consumers faced a volatile global economy and on the prospect of higher domestic interest rates.
The Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank Australian Performance of Services Index fell 1.9 points in the month to 45.6.
It was the eighth time in 2010 the index has been below the 50 level separating contraction from expansion. April was the only month during the year when the index was above 50.
The PMI for manufacturing for last month also dipped below the 50 cut off between expansion and contraction for the first time in several months.
The service sector report showed that Personal & recreational services was the only sector that experienced growth in September, after a sharp contraction in August.
The sales sub-index fell 5.5 points to 46.3, while new orders remained broadly unchanged at 47.5 points.
Employment in the services sector contracted in September, with the sub-index down 2.6 points to 44.4, marking the second month of decline and the lowest since January.
