So what are the implications from the survey for the bank’s view of the economy?
Not much, it seems, although it does still see the Reserve Bank lifting interest rates before the end of the year.
"Australian growth forecasts unchanged at 3.25% in 2010, lifting to 3.75% in 2011," the NAB commented yesterday.
"Survey (forward orders, capacity utilisation and stocks) suggests domestic sector starting to turn around, but still soft.
"Construction sector switching from public to private fuelled growth but timing critical.
"Stronger growth to be supported by mining investment and export income, but still waiting to see full impacts.
"After false start in October, RBA likely to increase rates before Xmas – probably November but timing data dependent (especially labour market and CPI).
"Rates still expected to peak at 5.5% by September quarter 2011.
"Rates likely to stay at this level given likely strength of demand and tightness in labour market.
"Core inflation still at 2.8% by end 2010 and 2¾% by end 2011.
"AUD under review but parity now likely," it added.
"Our global currency forecasts are currently under review.
"Recently, the combination of soft US data and, especially, the Feds signalling of near term aggressive quantitative easing has significantly weakened the USD.
"Thus, while the strong AUD in part reflects the relative strength of our economy and global commodity prices, much more relates to weakness of the USD.
"For example since early August the Euro has appreciated 10% vis-à-vis the USD (1.26 to 1.40).
"With the USD likely to remain weak, parity now seems likely in the months ahead.
"The following shows our current model range but clearly upside adjustment (i.e. parity) is likely in coming months.
"Global growth forecast little changed at 4.6% in 2010 and 4.4% in 2011 (previously 4.7 and 4.3% respectively)," the bank forecast.
"Stronger growth forecasts for a number of the smaller emerging market economies are largely offset by a slightly weaker forecast for China.
"Big differences remain between the rapid rates of economic expansion seen across the big emerging market economies (Brazil, China, and India) and the much weaker recoveries in the big developed economies where the pace of expansion seems now to be slowing."
