Yet another big week for data, reports, announcements and more, here and offshore.
Take just this slice of announcements and reports:
In Australia, the RBA’s minutes of the October board meeting that left rates steady, plus the BHP Billiton first quarter operations report; in Britain there’s the huge spending cuts to be announced later in the week, while in the US the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of anecdotal information about the US economy will be issued, while China’s third quarter economic performance will be revealed on Thursday.
In fact with the flood of US third quarter earnings reports, plus the start of similar reports from major European companies, markets are in danger of being overloaded with information.
In Australia the major area of interest will be the minutes from the RBA’s last board meeting which are out tomorrow.
They are likely to confirm that the Bank retains a strong bias to raise interest rates again, but will emphasise that the bank will wait to see the inflation numbers for the September quarter, out next week.
They will be available for the RBA board meeting on November 2.
Data for car sales, skilled vacancies and trade prices will also be released.
The Australian AGM season will also continue with the main focus likely to be on earnings risk for internationally exposed (dollar) companies.
Companies including Stockland and Cochlea hold AGMs on Tuesday, Country Road on Wednesday, Transfield Services, AGL Energy, Kagara, Blackmores, Gazal Corporation and GUD Holdings hold their meetings on Thursday. On Friday Papelinx shareholders meet, along with those from Austal Ltd and Amalgamated Holdings.
There will be a rush of quarterly production and operations reports this week from mining and oil companies, led by BHP Billion’s September quarter report on Wednesday.
Thursday night sees the UK registered shareholders of BHP meet in London for the 2010 AGM (the Australian meeting is in mid-November).
There were reports overnight Sunday from London that BHP and Rio would call off their planned iron ore joint venture this week, possibly at that meeting in London.
Internationally, China’s third quarter economic data is out this week, but it will be the release of the so-called Beige Book of economic anecdotes from the Fed’s 12 reporting districts, that will dominate thinking, along with speeches from 10 senior Fed officials, mostly district governors.
The interest is in what’s reported from the various parts of the US and from various industries in the light of the gradual move by the central bank towards another round of massive spending to try and give the weak pace of economic growth a growth jolt.
After Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke on Friday pushed the central bank closer to the easing (which could however, be smaller than the market thinks), every word from the central bank and its representatives will be watched for any further clues as to the timing and size of the easing.
For example, on Saturday Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Charles Evans strongly supported another easing when he said the US economy was in a “bona fide liquidity trap” and needs “much more” monetary accommodation in the face of high unemployment and inflation that’s too low.
There will be 10 appearances by fed governors or regional presidents in the coming week in the US. Do you think there is a concerted campaign to get the message across?
As well, we will also get the figures for industrial production, housing starts (both for September), and a survey of home builders and a survey of manufacturers will be released.
Housing data is likely to confirm the picture of stabilisation, albeit at a low levels.
The industrial production figures will show a small rise, but the pace will still be well below the long term trend of capacity utilisation.
The US profit reporting season will move into top gear with 11 Dow and 109 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results.
Consensus expectations are for earnings to have grown 24% over the year to the September quarter, but analysts say that if reports continue to surprise as they have done so far then this is likely to be revised up.
Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Apple and IBM on Monday, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs and Yahoo! On Tuesday and Boeing, Wells Fargo and E*Trade on Wednesday, Thursday will see results from AT&T, Caterpillar, McDonald’s, Amazon and American Express, while 15 companies, including Verizon, are due to report on Friday. Wells Fargo also reports as well to make a big week for the US banks.
In Europe, the EU, current account figures will be released on Monday, while Tuesday will see construction figures for August.
European earnings season kicks into top gear later today, with earnings from a string of blue chips including Philips, Nokia and Credit Suisse.
But the big announcement in Europe is the UK government’s detailing of what’s expected to be massive spending cuts on Wednesday night, our time.
Defence, business, welfare and a whole range of activities will be chopped in what is widely tipped to be a brutal announcement aimed at slashing the budget deficit and trying to bring debt under control.
The value of sterling and the UK sharemarket will be impacted.
The bigger the cuts the bigger the potential rise for sterling and the sharemarket to jump sharply, ignoring that the detailed cuts will end the honeymoon the Conservative
