Once again we face a week of important data here and offshore that will influence our interest rates, share prices and give us an update on the path of the stuttering US economy.
The releases include Australian producer and consumer inflation, two major bank results, US third quarter economic growth, business and consumer confidence surveys and a string of lesser data.
In Japan we should get some key figures towards the end of the week, especially on while EU employment and industrial production figures will also be released.
In Australia the key figure is the September quarter Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, with the Producer Price Index out later this morning from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Reserve Bank Governor, Glenn Stevens also delivers a speech later this morning in Canberra that will be closely watched for hints on interest rates and 2011.
But the bank made clear in the minutes last week of the October 5 board meeting, that inflation is the key. It even gave us the yardstick by which to measure the CPI, "around 3%" as a headline rate and underlying inflation between 2.5% and 2.7%. The June quarter was 3.1% and 2.7% underlying.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver says we can "expect headline inflation to rise 0.7% quarter on quarter or 2.8% year on year and underlying inflation to rise by 0.6% quarter on quarter and 2.6% year on year." (Other economists expect a headline rate for the quarter of 0.8%).
"Expect sharp rises in prices for alcohol, tobacco and utilities to be partly offset by falls in petrol prices, health and clothing and footwear.
"Comments from retailers indicate that price discounting is likely to have remained a key dampener on inflation.
"However, unless the underlying inflation rate is below the RBA’s expectation of 2.5% to 2.75% it’s unlikely to have a big impact on the RBA’s next interest rate decision."
As well we also get Australian credit data for September.
The National Australia Bank and ANZ report full year results, (Wednesday and Thursday respectively) while Macquarie Bank (Friday) reveals what are expected to be lower half yearly figures.
Australian Competition and Consumer Commission chairman Graeme Samuel will speak in Perth.
No doubt he will get questions about banks and interest rates.
New home sales figures for September from the Housing Industry Association are also expected and RP Data-Rismark release home price data for the September quarter.
Analysts predict prices to have slipped, as they did in the month of August.
The Australian company AGM season kicks up a few notches this week.
Perpetual’s meeting on Tuesday should see questions asked about the approach from private equity group, KKR.
Today brings AGMs from Agro Investments, Linc Energy, Tabcorp Holdings and Wotif.com Holdings.
Tomorrow, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Anglogold Ashanti, Austock Group, Billabong International, Carsales.com, Clough, NIB Holdings, Perpetual, Slater & Gordon, Transurban and WorleyParsons all hold AGMs.
On Wednesday, meetings include Asciano, Fantastic Holdings, Insurance Australia Group, Macarthur Coal, Origin Energy and Southern Cross Media Group.
On Thursday, Flight Centre, Petsec Energy and Warrnambool Cheese & Butter Factory all hold AGMs.
On Friday Atlas Iron and Boom Logistics hold AGMs.
In America, the first estimate of third economic growth will be released on Friday night, our time. Estimates range from around 1.75% (annual) to 2.2%.
The third and final estimate of second-quarter 2010 annualized GDP growth was revised up to 1.7% from the second estimate of 1.6% (and the advance estimate of 2.4%).
The second-quarter increase represents a slowing from gains of 3.7% and 5.0% in the first quarter of 2010 and the fourth quarter of 2009, respectively.
This first estimate though doesn’t include the trade figures for September (out next month), or data on personal income and consumer credit.
As well, data on sales of new and existing houses will be released are likely show a small increase, but house price data the Case Schiller Index) , which lags, is likely to soften.
Durable goods orders for last month are likely to show reasonable gains confirming that the corporate sector remains a source of strength in the US, especially technology products.
Data for consumer confidence (Conference Board is the main one) and business surveys from the Texas, Richmond and Chicago Federal Reserve regions will also be released.
A speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke will also be watched closely for clues regarding quantitative easing ahead of the Open Markets Committee meeting on November 2-3.
The US profit reporting season also continues.
Ford Chevron Corp, Newmont Mining Corporation, Microsoft, Potash Corp (Canada), Proctor and Gamble, Texas Instruments, Dow Chemical, DuPont, Merck and Co, will release earnings results
177 S&P 500 companies are due to report third quarter earnings this week, of which seven are Dow components
According to figures on Friday from Thomson Reuters, S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase 28% from the same time of 2009, up from the 24% forecast two weeks ago.
Elsewhere, in the UK, third quarter economic data will be released, along with the EU employment numbers and industrial production. All will be mixed.
EU economic confidence data for October will also be released, along with similar data from the UK.
A host of big UK and Europe
