The coming week will see; QR National shares start trading today, another public appearance by Reserve Bank Governor, Glenn Stevens, the second estimate of US third quarter economic growth, third quarter private investment in Australia, minutes of the November meeting of the US Federal Reserve that brought us QE2 and America’s big post -Thanksgiving retail sales season at week’s end.
Thursday is Thanksgiving in America, Friday the day when the much anticipated retail splurge starts.
In fact many stores will open on Thanksgiving to try and get an early hold on consumers.
It will dominate the end of the week, while the release earlier in the week of the minutes of the Fed’s November meeting will dominate policy debate.
And in Europe the outline of a bailout of Ireland and its broken banks is expected, possibly later today, before trading in Europe opens late this afternoon.
All in all, another busy week here and offshore
Locally results are sparse; Graincorp is down to release figures during the week, while Programmed Maintenance Services will flesh out the guidance for a first half profit fall from 10 days ago.
It’s easy to pick the topics for RBA Governor Glenn Stevens when he appears before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics at Parliament House in Canberra.
Interest rates and bank funding will be the top of the list.
The political storm controversy over record profits and bigger than RBA rate rises by the banks will guarantee enormous interest in the Governor’s comments.
The Australian Bureau of Statistic releases construction data and the new Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure data for the third quarter.
Analysts are expecting a rise of 6% in investment, after recording three quarterly declines in the past year.
The construction spending and business investment figures will help us firm up estimates for September quarter GDP growth to be released on 1st December.
AGM’s will include, Aston Resources, Azure Minerals, Carrick Gold, Liquefied Natural Gas and NGM Resources, Bowen Energy, Harvey Norman Holdings, Murchison Metals, Biota, Ridley Corp., iiNet and IOOF Holdings, Apollo Gas, Monadelphous Group, Ausdrill, Kathmandhu Holdings, Molly Mines, Regional Express Holdings (REX), Sundance Resources, Photon Group, Virgin Blue Holdings, Ferraus, Goodman Fiedler, Gunns, Linc Energy, Paladin Energy, Village Roadshow, Beach Energy, Patties Foods, Centrebet, Paladin, Euroz, Coote Industrials, Salmat, FKP Property, Macmahon Holdings and Primary Health Care. .
In the US quarterly earnings will come from Dow component, Hewlett-Packard reports.
All US markets are closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.
The retail sales start Thanksgiving and will be the subject of much market and media conjecture.
Expectations about Black Friday, when Americans traditionally get serious about holiday shopping, could impact market sentiment in a short trading week, especially the prices of big retailer like Wal-Mart, Target and KMart.
Reuters came up with a colourful line in a story at the weekend:
"Even though light volume will define trade during the holiday-shortened week of US Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, investors will watch to see if retail sales appear strong enough to give the market a Santa Claus rally."
Or will it be a case of poor sales and Bar, humbug’, as it has been the past couple of years?
The second estimate for US third quarter GDP is due tomorrow night, our time with an annual 2.3% rate tipped by analysts.
That’s up from the 2.0% rate in the first estimate in late October.
Existing and new home sales data for October will also be released this week.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver says the October home sales data are likely to slip back a notch after strong gains in September, September quarter GDP growth is likely to be revised up slightly from the 2% annualised pace initially reported and durable goods orders are likely to have remained solid in October.
As well, US personal consumption data for the third quarter and the US Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index are due for release before Thursday.
Jobless claims data and consumer sentiment figures (US Conference Board) are also due.
But the big issue of interest will be the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s November meeting.
These will tell us how the decision to ease by another $US600 billion, was discussed by the Open Market Committee, and possibly we might get details of the vote, as we do after each meeting on the level of interest rates.
The decision to ease has sparked enormous debate in the US and offshore, with China leading the criticism of the move (for obvious reasons).
In the UK third quarter GDP data is due, while the In Europe, European Union industrial new orders are expected to be released.
And various European business conditions surveys for November will be watched to see how well Europe is holding up.
In Asia, attention will be on China for the next tightening move from the government and central bank.
Japan releases its October trade report, while Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines will all release third-quarter GDP estimates.
