Excepting sugar and bananas, Australia’s major winter and summer crops seem to have fared better than first thought from the floods in Queensland in late 2010 and last month and in Victoria in January.
The wet weather was triggered by what has been the most intense La Nina episode since 1974, and yesterday the Weather Bureau suggested the current pattern was weakening and expected to fade into autumn.
The latest crop report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) says total winter crop production for the 2010-11 financial year is now estimated at 42.1 million tonnes, down 1.1 million tonnes from the December forecast, but 19% up on the 2010 year.
The new cotton crop could be the biggest on record, and the rice crop could be among the largest harvests ever of that grain and both would be due to the record wet in some parts of Queensland and NSW in the past three months.
And if it hadn’t been for the drought in Western Australia, the Australian rural sector would have been facing a bonanza.
ABARES said that of the major winter crops, wheat production is estimated to have reached 26.3 million tonnes, up 20% on last season; barley production is forecast to be up 18% on last season and canola will be up around 11% from 2010.
The Bureau said that "wheat production in Western Australia was higher than earlier forecast and this has partially offset a lowering of the ABARES forecast production in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria.
"Barley production is estimated to have increased by 18% compared with last season; barley production is estimated to have been lower, while canola production is slightly higher than the ABARES December forecast."
So far updates on sugar and bananas and other horticultural crops haven’t been made. But early estimates suggested that the wet in late 2010 had already cost the Queensland industry some $500 million in lost production, while there are forecasts that 85% of the current banana crop has been lost, which is not as bad as it was in Cyclone Larry several years ago.
So the 1.1 million tonne fall in the winter grain harvest, put down to the impact of the wet weather, is sad for those farmers who have lost crops, but it is not the disaster for the various industries or the economy as a whole that many media reports have suggested in December and January.
And there is a big upside from the Big Wet.
Summer crops, such as cotton and rice will be much bigger than expected and grain sorghum will be up.
Cotton will be available to be sold into the booming world market where prices are at or near all time historical highs at the moment.
ABARES pointed out yesterday that "An upside of all the rain over recent months is that it has replenished irrigation dams and boosted soil moisture, which will be highly beneficial for the current summer cropping season.
"Continued heavy rainfall in late 2010 and early 2011 resulted in major flooding throughout Queensland and northern New South Wales, which negatively impacted some crops in low lying areas, notably cotton.
"However, the overall effect of the rainfall has been positive for crop development, and has boosted yield prospects."
It said the total area planted to summer crops is forecast to be 1.5 million hectares, around 62% higher than last season.
"The increase has been driven by large increases in cotton and rice plantings as a result of a substantial increase in the availability of irrigation water.
"Summer crop production is forecast to be 66 per cent higher at 4.8 million tonnes.
"The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to increase by 23 per cent to 637 000 hectares in 2010–11.
"Although plantings have been restricted because of continual rain in central Queensland, the rain has been beneficial to planted crops and it is expected that yields will be above average in both northern New South Wales and Queensland.
"Production is forecast to reach 2.2 million tonnes, around 39 per cent higher than last season.
"High cotton prices and abundant supplies of irrigation water in most cotton growing regions are forecast to result in a 117 per cent increase in Australian cotton production in 2010–11, to 839 000 tonnes, with reductions from floods in Queensland more than offset by higher production in New South Wales.
"If realised, this would be the largest Australian cotton harvest on record, exceeding the previous high of 818 000 tonnes produced in 2000–01.
"Abundant supplies of irrigation water are also forecast to lead to a substantial increase in rice plantings, which are estimated to have risen fourfold to 89 000 hectares.
"Rice production is forecast to reach 802 000 tonnes in 2010–11, with yields forecast to be average."
And the heavy rain and floods means that the next winter crop will have a lot of ground moisture with which to grow from planting onwards to Spring.
Given good conditions, that could see another big grain crop, especially if the drought breaks in WA.
Meanwhile the Weather Bureau yesterday updated its forecast for the current La Nina weather pattern.
The Bureau said the current La Nina appears to be weakening.
"The La Niña event which has dom
