The economy dominates Australia this week, with the Reserve Bank board meeting tomorrow, the fourth quarter economic growth figures out on Wednesday, after the current account figures and other data today and tomorrow.
In the US there’s some important economic data, with the February jobs figures on Friday night, our time, dominating.
The events in the Middle East will be watched closely for signs of resolution or further deterioration, especially their impact on increasingly volatile oil prices.
The American government could shut down this weekend if there’s no agreement between the Administration and the House of Representative on extending the debt ceiling.
We will also have the usual surveys looking at the performance of manufacturing industry.
The Australian December 31 corporate reporting season wraps up today with QR National among those reporting, along with insurance giant QBE.
Downer EDI, the troubled Sydney based train maker, should produce a big loss and a rumoured fund raising later today.
Interim results are also expected from Beach Energy, food group Goodman Fielder and Murchison Metals.
The big corporate events for the week will be the vote on Wednesday by AXA Asia Pacific Holdings shareholders on the AMP’s $14.3 billion offer.
But we will have to have the Federal Government’s decision before that meeting. It’s late, indicating some difficulty in Canberra.
Car sales figures in the US for February and industry figures in Australia will also be introduced during the week (Tuesday night in the US, later in the week in Australia).
In Australia in terms of importance, it’s a toss up between the RBA board meeting and the December quarter GDP data the next day on Wednesday.
The RBA board is expected to sit on rates and wait for the March quarter inflation figures due at the end of April. That means no real prospect of a rate rise till then.
The AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says the GDP report from the National Accounts is expected to show a 0.5% rise in GDP or 2.5% year on year with a solid increase in business investment and a contribution from trade offsetting softness in consumer spending, dwelling investment and a slight negative impact from the floods in December. (The economy was up 0.2% quarter on quarter in the September quarter, for an annual rate of 2.7%.)
Other economists see a rise of around 0.7% quarter on quarter, with some down as low as 0.3%.
One of the things to watch for will be the level of savings: it’s the biggest talking point in economic policymaking.
The savings level was 10% in the September quarter which is said to be one of the reasons why retailing is doing it tougher than it was a year ago.
Business indicators for the December quarter (especially wages and salaries and inventories are out today) and the current account data for the quarter (out tomorrow), will give us a good look at how the economy went in 2010.
We will also get the January data for retail sales (due Tuesday), building approvals (due Thursday) and the trade balance (also for January) are all likely to show weakness as a result of the disruption caused by the floods.
Later this morning we get the Reserve Bank’s private sector credit figures and the RP Data house price index for January. The RBA’s index of commodity prices for February is out tomorrow.
In the US, we expect strong readings for the key ISM manufacturing and services conditions indicators (due Tuesday and Thursday) and a (big) gain in jobless of 160,000-200,000 in non-farm payrolls for February (due Friday).
The consistent fall in US jobless claims in the past couple of months has been signalling a big turnaround in unemployment (9% in January).
US economists are looking for the February report to provide clear evidence that the rebound in the economy is starting to cut the level of jobless.
The Fed releases its Beige Book of economic anecdotes gathered from the central bank’s 12 reporting districts. It’s likely to be more upbeat than it has been for months.
In the US, personal income and outlays data is set for release on Monday, along with the pending home sales index.
The February Chicago purchasing managers index is also due.
In the US, productivity and costs data and the ISM non-manufacturing index will be released.
Friday brings factory orders figures as well as January durable goods orders data.
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke appears before the US Congress during the week.
And there are only a handful of corporate reports in the US, retailers Kroger and Costco report (Wal Mart revealed falling sales in its US business last week for the fourth quarter and 2010).Tech stock Novell, office supplies group Staples Inc and food giant HJ Heinz also report.
In Japan we get trade, employment and industrial production data.
In China, manufacturing conditions indicators (due Tuesday) are likely to show a further slowing in growth.
PMIs in Europe will show solid growth by manufacturing in countries like the UK, Germany and France. Australia’s is out tomorrow as well.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will make its interest rate decision for the month Thursday night.
Watch for stern words about inflation, tempered by fears the rising price of oil might do more damage than just boost inflation levels.
The European Monetary Union (EU) consumer price index for January will be released tomorrow night.
EU January unemployment d
