The first conclusive evidence of the damage done to exports and building approvals by the Queensland floods in late December and early January has emerged in the latest figures.
This is on top of the impact in the December quarter that Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan said helped clip overall growth by around 0.4% to 0.7%.
Exports fell in January with coal shipped from Queensland down by nearly $1 billion in value, while building approvals had their biggest fall in eight years, led by falls in Queensland.
The ABS also picked up a $200 million fall in meat exports.
It has to be remembered that much of these losses will either be picked up later in the year by builders, or in the case of coal exports, will be recovered via higher prices for coking and thermal coal later in the year.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences this week estimated the impact of the floods at around 15 million tonnes of missed exports, worth from $2 to $2.5 billion.
That’s a combination of various types of coking coal for the steel industry and thermal coal for the power and cement industries, mostly in Asia.
The trade figures for January from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed a small fall overall in the surplus from the fall in coal exports, with higher exports of other products and a sharpish fall in imports softening the blow.
The trade surplus fell to $1.875 billion in January, seasonally adjusted, (or down $143 million) from an upwardly revised surplus of $2.018 billion ($1.981 billion original) in December.
That was a bit better than the market forecast of $1.65 billion.
During the month, exports and imports both fell 4% in the month
The value of coal exports was down more than $900 million in the month with big falls in shipments to China, India and Taiwan.
"Extensive flooding began in late December 2010 in Queensland, and was more extensive in both Queensland and other states in January 2011. The collection and processing of data included in this publication were not disrupted," the ABS said.
"On a month to month basis the export and import of goods can be impacted by a number of factors including exchange rates, supply constraints, consumer confidence and seasonal patterns. The impact of an event like the Queensland floods on exports can not be readily quantified.
"However, the following analysis identifies the major components that in January 2011 differed from the five year average recorded trade movement between December and January for Queensland:
- hard coking coal fell $591m (37%), with an average decrease of $259m (14%) between December and January over the previous five years
- bituminous (thermal) coal fell $121m (33%), with an average increase of $2m (5%) between December and January over the previous five years
- Meat and meat preparations, down $219m (71%), compared with an average decrease of $177m (58%) between December and January over the previous five years. "
On coal shipments in January, the ABS said;
- hard coking coal fell $713m (40%) with exports to India down $230m (49%) and China down $149m (53%), driven by decreases in volumes of 47% and 49%, respectively
- semi-soft coal fell $230m (33%) with exports to China down $106m (85%) and India down $41m (58%), driven by decreases in volumes of 83% and 53%, respectively
- bituminous (thermal) coal fell $75m (6%) with exports to China down $120m (63%) and Taiwan down $53m (36%), driven by decreases in volumes of 64% and 40%, respectively. These decreases were partly offset by a rise in exports to Republic of Korea up $81m (46%), driven by an increase in volumes of 37%."
And the building approvals for the same month showed a big fall in approvals, with Queensland’s floods blamed.
The ABS said "Building Approvals show that the total number of dwellings approved fell 15.9% in January 2011, in seasonally adjusted terms, after rising 10.0% in December.
"Widespread flooding in the eastern states, particularly Queensland, and other recent natural disasters have not adversely affected participation by providers in the Building Approvals collection or the quality of estimates in this release. However, these events have had an impact on the number of approved dwellings and the value of approved work in January 2011. As revisions may occur to these data in future releases, care should be taken when interpreting month to month movements."
The impact of the floods in Queensland can be seen from the size of the monthly falls in overall approvals and owner occupied approvals.
According to the ABS all states and territories recorded fewer dwelling approvals this month: NSW (-12.1%), Victoria (-9.5%), Queensland (-29.9%), South Australia (-20.9%), Western Australia (-4.6%) and Tasmania (-34.9%) all recorded falls in seasonally adjusted terms.
Private sector houses approved fell 2.4% in seasonally adjusted terms for January with falls in Queensland (-20.0%) and South Australia (-3.6%), while NSW (up 1.8%), Victoria (up 2.5%) and Western Australia (up 0.2
