A busy week here and offshore for economic data, while it will also see what has been a mixed first quarter end on Thursday (and the March half year for a number of local companies).
American unemployment, Australian building approvals and retail sales for February and the balance date for three of our big four banks on March 31, will dominate the week.
As well the markets look like continuing to ignore the flow of bad news from Japan, Europe and the Middle East and North Africa.
For how long remains a good question and probably the most important one around at the moment.
Better than forecast growth figures in the third estimate for America’s 4th quarter have raised hopes that the jobs figures for March, to be released on Friday, will be better than expected.
Gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 3.1%, the US Commerce Department said in its third and final estimate, revised up from 2.8%. That’s around 0.75% quarter on quarter growth.
Now, some US economists reckon the March jobs report on Friday night our time could see 180,000 to 300,000 jobs created, with the unemployment rate dipping under 8.9% for February.
Of course the same economists had high hopes for February with some seeing over 200,000 jobs created: as it was, a solid 192,000 new jobs were created, with around 58,000 new jobs added to December and January.
Economists say there’s been some easing in the strength of recent data from the US (such as a fall in durable goods orders, both before and after lumpy aircraft orders are deducted), but consumers have been spending, so some see another solid quarter for this one which ends on Thursday.
That is likely to be supported by personal spending data out tonight, our time.
But home prices for January in the S&P Case/Schiller (out tomorrow) will show another fall (down around 4.6% in the year to December and 3.9% in the final quarter), and pending home sales could show a small rise.
But after the sharp slide in sales of existing and new homes last week, nothing is certain in the depressed American housing sector any more.
Consumer confidence as measured by the US Conference Board will be out this week and is likely to follow the sharp fall reported on Friday in the University of Michigan survey.
That showed the index falling from 77.5 in February to 67.5 in March – a 10-point drop and not a sign of a growing economy.
Construction data will again be weak (with housing terrible) and the March car industry sales figures are out on Friday.
America’s performance of manufacturing survey, which is running at a high levels, will be issued on Friday, as will similar surveys for a host of other economies including Australia, the UK, China (two) and across the rest of Asia and Europe.
In Australia, building approvals for February (due Thursday) are likely to have recovered somewhat from their flood-affected slump in January and February retail sales and private credit data (also due Thursday) are likely to record modest growth.
The latest RP Data-Rismark house price survey is also out on Thursday.
Data for new home sales and job vacancies will also be released. Also of interest will be a speech by Assistant Governor Edey, the second from him in a week.
He speaks at a cards and payments conference in Sydney tomorrow.
Besides the NAB, ANZ and Westpac closing the books for their first half on Thursday, CSR, Orica and James Hardie are some of the other companies doing the same thing.
They will all report next month.
Struggling Sigma Pharmaceuticals is due to report its 2010-11 results (today) which will be a big loss.
And Nufarm releases its interim figures today as well. It upgraded its outlook last week for the first time in more than a year.
Japan will see several bits of important data released: industrial production, the trade balance, inflation, unemployment and retail sales and job vacancies.
All will be for February and all will be essentially meaningless after the terrible triple disaster of March 11.
AGMs will come from Alamar Resources, European Gas, Elementos, Terrain Minerals, Poseidon Nickel, Haranga Resources, Sherwin Iron, Tri Origin Minerals, Deep Seas Fisheries, Overland Resources, Matrix Metals, Stonehenge Metals, Tasmania Mines, SOFCOM, Emerald Oil & Gas and Crusader Holdings.
In Europe, UK Money Supply data for February is due, as well as net personal lending data for the month.
European Monetary Union economic confidence data for March is due for release, along with industrial confidence data for the month.
And February EU unemployment rate figures are due on Friday, a month behind the US estimates for March.
