The AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver says there are a lot of worries in and around markets at the moment.
Another quake in Japan overnight, the ECB lifting rates, oil hitting $US110 a barrel in New York, Portugal’s approaching bailout: the list is long at the moment, but Dr Oliver says we will survive.
Our broad view remains that the cyclical recovery in shares and other growth oriented assets has further to go on the back of a global economic recovery that is looking more and more self sustaining,
This is particularly the case with US jobs growth now kicking in, reasonable share market valuations, still easy money and plenty of cash sitting on the side lines.
However, yet again there is no shortage of things to worry about. Of course there never is.
Otherwise shares couldn’t climb the proverbial “wall of worry”.
But the global worry list currently seems long with key worries being: Japan, oil prices, inflation, China, US housing, the eventual end of Fed easing, European debt problems and public debt generally.
But how big a threat are these?
The first thing to note is that the list seemed similarly long a year ago but the global recovery continued as did the recovery in share markets – albeit with a few bumps along the way.
Remember the “double dip” that was supposedly just around the corner?
It never happened.
Nor the hyper-inflation that was supposed to flow from US money printing.
The same is likely with this year’s worry list.
Japan
The Japanese earthquake and associated tsunami and nuclear disaster are a major humanitarian tragedy and will cause a sharp set back in Japanese economic activity in the first half of the year, and disruptions to supply chains in some industries.
However, short of a full blown nuclear meltdown, the risk of which appears to be receding, it’s unlikely to seriously dent the global recovery.
Japan is only 6% of world economic activity and re-building will provide a boost to growth during the second half of the year.
Conflict in the Middle East and oil prices
Oil prices are trending higher on the back of rising demand and constrained supplies.
The issue is how fast they rise.
Our assessment is that if the conflict in the Middle East and North Africa spreads further, disrupting oil supplies and pushing world oil prices up to $US140 a barrel, then this would be a major threat to global growth.
However, over the last few weeks it hasn’t spread further and the odds seem to be rising that the issue will be contained. If so, the world can learn to live with current oil prices.
Inflation
The past year has seen a sharp surge in food and fuel prices.
Many still fret that it’s only a matter of time before easy money in advanced countries leads to a surge in inflation.
First, the problem is more serious in emerging than advanced countries, where food is a greater proportion of household budgets and monetary policy is too easy.
Second, it should be recognised that the surge in food and fuel prices has been mainly due to supply problems.
Assuming a turn in the weather cycle and planting increases, food price pressure is likely to soften through the second half.
Finally, there is still no sign of the US hyperinflation surge that many fear in response to easy US monetary policy.
Broad money and credit growth has picked up, but only slightly.
US wages growth is very subdued and there is still plenty of spare capacity.
All of which suggests that underlying inflation in the US and other advanced countries will only gradually rise.
China slowdown
There is still significant concern China is an unsustainable bubble and that tightening to slow inflation and the property market will cause a collapse in growth.
However, this remains unlikely.
With Chinese non-food inflation remaining relatively benign, and food inflation showing signs of coming under control, monetary tightening is unlikely to become aggressive.
Property measures this time around are more about increasing affordable housing rather than bursting prices.
This may not be so good for real estate developers and speculators, but is actually very good for property construction related activities.
Finally, Chinese authorities have proven very adept at managing the Chinese economy – the last thing they want is a sharp downturn in growth given the social unrest it will cause.
US housing
The US housing sector remains chronically weak with prices still falling, and starts and sales plumbing new lows.
This obviously raises the risk of another leg down in the US housing market potentially undermining confidence, spending and the banking system.
However, it may not be as bad as it looks.
Mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosures appear to have peaked, vacancy rates are falling, unsold new homes are at record lows and consumer plans to buy a new home have surged.
The Fed’s exit from easy money
Some argue shares and risky assets are only being propped up by easy US monetary policies and once this ends they will come tumbling down, as occurred following the end of the first round of quantitative easing (QE1) in the June quarter last year (when shares fell 15 to 20%).
As markets move to factor in tightening, it’s almost certain to create a rough patch for global shares.
However, there are several reasons not to be too concerned.
First, the US economic recovery is looking more self sustaining than when QE1 ended a year ago with
