A relatively quiet week in Australia for economic data this week, a busy week in the US and Europe, but attention will really focus on the release of economic data for China for March and the March quarter on Friday.
Australia sees a couple of sentiment surveys for business and consumers, plus some minor statistics.
Tonight sees the International Monetary Fund delivers its latest world economic outlook forecasts ahead of its Spring meetings and those of the World Bank later in the week.
The big corporate event here will be a meeting in Perth that should tick the big reshuffle in Kerry Stokes’ media empire, but that will be overshadowed by the market update due today from Leighton Holdings that is likely to dominate for the next few days.
In Europe and the UK we will get some updates on the economy and some trading updates from corporates, while in the US there’s inflation figures due, plus the start of the first quarter earnings season.
For Australian investors, the health of our most important export market and the source of much of the recent strength in the resources sector of the market will be up for reassessment on Friday.
Chinese trade data was released yesterday and economic growth and inflation data will be out Friday.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver says we should "expect Chinese economic data to show moderation in March quarter GDP growth to a more sustainable 9.5% pace, a slight pick up in the pace of retail sales but slightly softer fixed asset investment and a rebound in exports after holiday related weakness in February.
"The bad news will likely be a pick up in inflation to 5.2% from 4.9% in February, however its worth noting that this will mainly reflect base effects as softer data for March last year drops out."
He said that a moderation in the monthly pace of food price increases (11% in the year to February) and softer momentum in producer prices (7.1% in the year to February) along with the softening in economic and credit growth "should provide confidence that inflation is close to peaking and that the monetary tightening cycle in China is near the end".
China lifted interest rates last week for the second time this month and the markets shrugged it off.
Elsewhere in Asia we will have central banks considering rates in South Korea and Indonesia tomorrow. There might be an increase out of the South Korean meeting, according to some forecasts.
In Australia we will also get the monthly report on business confidence and conditions tomorrow from the NAB, with the monthly survey of consumer sentiment out on Wednesday from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute.
The NAB’s business conditions survey is expected to show a recovery in conditions after flood-affected weakness in February.
The April consumer confidence data is expected to show a rise following news that unemployment fell below 5% and interest rates remain on hold.
Car sales and lending finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is due out mid-week.
In corporate events the Leighton update is due out sometime this morning (see story above), while West Australian Newspaper shareholders meet today in Perth to vote on the acquisition of Seven Media Group from Seven Group Holdings and KKR. It will go through, based on present indications.
The Bank of Queensland will release interim financial results in the week ahead, while AACo will reveal full year results (due today). Both have already cut guidance this year.
Meetings will be held by companies including First Australian Resources, Macquarie Atlas Roads Group, Waratah Gold, Coal & Allied Industries and Hunter Hall International.
ERA and Coal and Allied are both subsidiaries of Rio Tinto and both reported lower profits in 2010.
On Thursday morning Australian time, governor Glenn Stevens will address the American Australian Association 2011 Annual Spring Lecture Lunch in New York.
In the US, the government is still open (for the moment).
In fact the US will see another nervy week, despite the short term fix to the budget argument on Saturday. Thursday looms as another deadline at this stage.
The IMF/World Bank spring meetings will see forecasts and the Global Stability Report updated, lots of talk about currency values, debt (such as in Europe and the US), Group of 20 meeting of finance ministers and other discussions.
And a summit of leaders from the so-called BRICS countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China, will be held in China.
March retail sales data for the US are due Wednesday and are likely to show modest growth.
Last week’s updates by a few retailers were mixed on the whole with no solid trends emerging.
But increases in fuel prices are likely to boost headline inflation data due Friday by 0.5%, but core inflation is likely to remain weak.
Producer Prices will rise as well, but core prices are expected to be again soft.
A survey of New York regional manufacturers and of consumer sentiment, both due on Friday, will also be watched closely.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, the collection of economic updates and anecdotal reports from the Fed’s 12 reporting districts, is out on Wednesday and will again carry an upbeat message about the economy.
Alcoa kicks off the US first quarter earnings rush tonight and Investors will look to corporate profits and outlooks next week for confirmation the S&P 50
