For us in Australia, the 2010-11 financial year, June 30 half year, June quarter and month of June have all been confusing, to say the least.
In fact they were a milder repeat of what happened in the first half of the 2010 calendar year.
In the six months to June 2010, the ASX 200 fell by around 12%, with much of that occurring in the second quarter and in June.
The market then rebounded strongly to rise by around 14% in the December half year, for a gain of around 2% or so for the calendar year.
This year our market had a strong first quarter, then a weak second quarter and a weak June.
And June, the June quarter and June half year would have been much weaker if not for the rally this week which added around 3% since the close on Monday (or around 137 points, with 80 of those happening yesterday).
The ASX 200 was up by around 7% for the financial year to yesterday.
But the June half year saw a 3.2% drop, the June quarter a larger and more painful fall of around 4.7% and a drop of around 2.1% in the month of June.
(Without the rally on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, June alone would have been down more than 5% and the quarter would have been over 7% lower.)
The broader All Ords was up by around 6.7% for the financial year.
Both the ASX 200 and the All Ords peaked in April, the All Ords at 5,069, the ASX 200 at 4,976.
In Australia the materials index was the star (in the ASX 200) with a gain of around 18%: consumer discretionary stocks (retailers mostly) fell 5%, Telcos were off 9% (Telstra) and information technology stocks lost around 12%.
The best performing share was Bathurst Resources (a NZ coal company), up some by 585%, while Energy Resources of Australia, the uranium miner controlled by Rio Tinto, fell 69% to be among the worst performers.
The second best performer was Mesoblast (a biotech) with a gain of around 367%.
Beach sands group, Iluka Resources jumped by around 260%.
It’s making big profits as well, which makes it something of a rarity among the top performers which are mostly small miners (and Mesoblast).
Steelmaker, OneSteel fell 38% and Seven West media was down 38% as well.
Looking at four market leaders.
Woolworths, our biggest retailer closed at $27.75 yesterday, up from the $27.02 at June 30 last year and the $26.97 at December 31, 2010.
But Woolies closed under its high for the year of $30.18 last October. Its low for the year was $25.52 last July.
The Commonwealth Bank, our biggest, closed at $52.30 yesterday, which was well above the $48.62 on June 30, 2010 (its low for the year) and the $50.77 on December 31 last year.
But it closed under its high for the year of $55.77 last February, and the low for the year was $47.05 hit in July of last year.
BHP, the world’s biggest resources company, finished at $43.80 yesterday which was well up on the $37.65 on June 30 last year, but under the $45.25 close on December 31, 2010.
BHP’s high for the year was $49.81 in April, the low of $36.34 was recorded in early July, 2010, or around 12 months ago, so a good gain for the year.
And finally Telstra, its shares ended yesterday at $2.89 after a volatile and rough 12 months dominated by the NBN.
Telstra’s high was $3.36 last August, after finishing at $3.36 on June 30, 2010. It hit a low of $2.55 in November after the NBN deal was revealed, finished December at $2.79, giving it a 10c a share gain for the June six months, which is a bit better than the first half of the year 2011 financial year.
And we can’t forget the Australian dollar, which has been the great leveller, cutting returns for offshore investors and for exporters large and small, but making life a bit easier for importers.
According to Reserve Bank figures, the dollar is up from 85.23 USc on June 30, 2010 (when the Trade Weighted Index was 67.3) to $US1.07.39, yesterday, with the TWI at 77.8.
In fact the dollar rose by around 2 USc in the past 24 hours, thanks to the good news from Greece.
That’s a rise of 22.16 USc, or according to the Reserve Bank’s home page or a rise of more than 25%.
The TWI is up around 16% in the same time and hit a new all time high in April, when the currency rose strongly to around $US1.940.
And with the new financial year (2011-12) starting today, watch for the June 30 reporting season starting soon and the flow of glum news.
Transpacific produced a downgrade and write-downs this week, while Fairfax Media, Seven West Media, Elders, Myer, Caltex, QBE, OneSteel and Bluescope Steel have all warned that profits will be down on the past year, or not as good as thought at the December 31 halfway mark.
Foster’s beer operations will report lower earnings, before any gains from those huge tax refunds and losses.
Virgin Blue will report a loss (but that is in the market), Woolworths cut its guidance earlier in the year, as has The Reject Shop, which was hammered by the impact of the January floods in South East Queensland.
Insurers IAG and Suncorp have both warned of the impact the NZ quakes and the floods and cyclones will have on the second half and full year profits.
But the banks are expected to do well, with the Commonwealth the first one off the mark on August 10.
Key results will come from BHP (final) and Rio Tinto (half year).
And take other three popular measures: the value of the US dollar, the price of gold and the Standard & Poor’s 500.
Over the year to June the US dollar index (which tracks the value of the US dollar against six major currencies) fell by more than 13%.
In the six mo
