The Australian economy is not falling apart, despite all the talk of multi-speed economies, recession and doom and boom.
On Tuesday the central bank left its key interest steady on 4.75%, signalled that the next increase could be months away and indicated that its growth forecasts were not going to be met for 2011 and into 2012.
Retail sales and building approvals for May were weaker than expected, as were new home starts in June, but inflation has slowed and car sales were solid in June.
This was enough to have some excitable commentators and business lobbyists claiming the economy was in recession, or close to it.
And then yesterday we got the news that after two months of losses, the jobs market rebounded strongly in June.
So strongly in fact that the dollar jumped nearly half a cent on the news as economists polished off their favourite headline, Rate Rise Looms, as it does at the August 2 board meeting of the RBA, but no more.
But if you looked long and hard at the jobs figures and compared them with May and April, you come to the conclusion that they were flat, a sort of catch up to the big losses in the two preceding months.
The economy added 23,400 jobs in June, said Australian Bureau of Statistics. That was above the 15,000 expected by market forecasts.
And the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.9 % for the fourth consecutive month which was another sign of a slowing jobs market.
The new data shows a surge of 59,000 full time jobs In June, while part time jobs fell 35,600, leaving a net gain of 23,400 jobs for the month.
But buried in the report were some significant revisions.
The ABS said it had revised the number of full-time jobs lost in May to 29,300 from a loss of 22,000 reported at the time.
The number of part-time jobs created in May was revised to 28,800, 1000 less than the 29,800 reported at the time.
May’s total employment change was revised to a loss of 500 from the growth of 7800 reported in that month.
A total of 11,455,200 people were employed last month.
The ABS said the increase in employment was driven by an increase in full-time employment, which was up by 59,000 people, three quarters of whom were women.
This increase saw full-time employment reach a total of 8,082,100 people in June.
This was offset by a decrease in part-time employment, down 35,600 people to 3,373,000.
The number of people who were unemployed decreased by 2,600 people to 591,000 in June reported the ABS.
The ABS monthly aggregate hours worked series showed an increase in June, up 8.8 million hours to 1,611.5 million hours.
The ABS reported a labour force participation rate in June of 65.5%.
In NSW, the jobless rate rose to 5.2% from 4.9% in May, seasonally adjusted.
In Victoria, it fell sharply to 4.6% from 5.1% in May.
In Queensland the jobless rate edged up to 5.3% from 5.2% in May, while in Western Australia unemployment eased down to 4.2% from 4.3% in May.
The ABS report shows that the June quarter saw around a 12,000 rise in total employment, from 11.435 million to 11.447 million.
There were 19,300 full time jobs lost after the strong rise in June (April and May saw 78,300 jobs lost).
And a total of 20,100 part time jobs were created (55,700 in April and May alone and before June’s big loss).
Over the year to June, more than 226,000 jobs were created, and around 38,000 since the start of the year.
Economists say the June rebound should be seen as more a correction to the weakness in April and May.
The unemployment rate has now been steady at 5% and 4.9% all year, indicating a clear slowing in the rate of growth in job creation.
One final point: aggregate monthly hours worked in June increased 8.8 million hours to 1,611.5 million hours.
That’s not a sign of an economy in recession, or even close to it.
