For much of last decade Australia’s outlook wasn’t an issue for investors.
It was just steadily motoring along.
But unfortunately over the last year or so the outlook for Australia has become more uncertain reflecting a whole range of issues: the resources tax; minority government; consumer caution; excessive house prices; poor productivity growth; rising inflation, etc.
This uncertainty has been reflected in the relative underperformance of Australian shares compared to global shares over the last 18 months.
It can also be seen in a divergence of views over the outlook for official interest rates.
The consensus of most economists is the next move will be up.
The Reserve Bank (at least until recently) has also been signalling that further monetary tightening is likely to be needed at some point, and the higher than expected June quarter inflation outcome is consistent with this.
However, some are saying the next move will be down and this is also priced into the money market (although only just).
Until recently I too was pretty confident the next move in cash rates was up, albeit I was concerned that getting too aggressive on rates could tip the non-mining part of the economy over the edge.
However, despite the June quarter inflation reading I now think that the outlook for Australian interest rates is finely balanced.
The case for higher rates
The argument that interest rates have further to rise is fairly simple.
The surge in commodity prices (which make up 70% of Australia’s exports) has pushed the terms of trade to its highest level since the early 1950s.
This is resulting in national income and nominal GDP rising at a rate of around 8 to 10% per annum.
Global growth around its long term trend of 4% per annum, combined with ongoing rapid industrialisation in China and other emerging countries will ensure commodity prices remain high going forward.
Mining investment is set to boom, with investment plans pointing to a 50 to 80% rise this financial year.
With mining investment accounting for 4% of GDP this implies a contribution to GDP growth this financial year of 2 to 3 percentage points.
Even allowing for the likelihood that a big portion of this will seep into imports it means the rest of the economy must remain pretty subdued in order for the economy to avoid overheating.
In the meantime the trickledown effect of the huge surge in national income from higher commodity prices – via increased employment, the wealth effect from gains in mining share prices, high dividend payments from mining companies etc – will boost spending elsewhere in the economy.
Allied to this, the economy is likely to recover from the floods earlier this year as coal production returns to normal and rebuilding kicks in.
At the same time, with the economy having limited spare capacity – as evident in the unemployment rate having fallen to 4.9%, the mining boom is adding to cost pressures by bidding up wages, with a flow on to city-based industries as key workers relocate to mining areas.
Consistent with this, inflation is trending higher with headline inflation running above target at 3.6% and underlying inflation has risen to 2.7% from a low of 2.2% in the December quarter.
Poor productivity growth and entrenched services sector inflation in government related areas such as utilities, property rates, health and education suggest the growth inflation/trade-off has deteriorated over the last five years or so.
It is generally thought the logical outworking of all this is that higher interest rates will be necessary to ensure that the non-mining part of the economy makes way for the mining boom, in order to avoid breaching capacity constraints and an overheating in the form of persistently higher inflation and a trade deficit.
This is pretty much the consensus amongst economists which is for the cash rate to rise to a high of 5.5% next year, compared to 4.75% currently.
The counter argument
However, over the last month, several considerations question ‘the next move is up’ interest rate view.
Firstly, the global outlook has become increasingly uncertain as European debt problems have intensified, the US recovery has proved disappointingly slow and fragile and with its excessive public debt adding to the malaise and ongoing uncertainty as to whether China will have a hard or soft landing.
Secondly, the rise in inflation in Australia largely reflects increases in ‘cost of living’ items due to one-offs (for example the continuing effect of the flood on fruit prices earlier this year), the surge in oil prices on the back of tensions in the Middle East and price increases in areas where governments plays a key role in price setting (such as utilities, health, education, child care, property rates, motoring charges, child care and postal costs).
Outside of these one-offs and non-market influences inflationary pressures are benign.
Inflation in market related goods and services excluding volatile items is running at just 1.8% year on year; and
Inflation excluding fruit and vegetables and petrol is just 2.5% year on year.
Of course there is an argument for a rate hike to help ensure the boost in the cost of living items doesn’t feed through into inflationary pressures but this is less of an issue if demand in the economy is weak.
Moreover, inflation is a lagging variable and the softening in underlying demand seen so far is likely to lead to a softening in underlying inflation over the year ahead.
This brings us to the third point, which is that demand outside of the mi
