The US debt debacle, central bank meetings in Australia, Japan, Europe and the UK, manufacturing surveys in all major economies starting later today with China and more corporate profits in Australia, the US, Europe and Asia.
It will be a very busy week here, in the US, Europe and Japan.
The debt crisis in the US continues to burble along with more talks between Democrats and Republicans; with President Obama waiting for a deal to approve or disapprove, especially the latter if a deal comes from the hard right of the Republican Party with strings attached.
President Barack Obama to give another national address around 11 am today.
Until there’s agreement, or something that clears away the current confused situation once and for all, expect markets run remain hesitant and investors unwilling to commit.
Back home in Australia, Rate Rise Looms gets a run tomorrow at the Reserve Bank board meeting, followed by those other current, popular clichés, cautious consumer, trade account rebounds and weak housing.
In other words, it’s the start of the month with the RBA to consider interest rates (and then produce its new forecasts for growth and inflation in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy on Friday).
As well, there’s the usual trio of major statistical releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics: retail sales, building approvals and international trade.
The TD Securities – Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for July is out this week, along with the Housing Industry Association (HIA) new home sales for June.
And there’s the first major quarterly figures from the three months to June emerge tomorrow with the house price index from the ABS (That’s after last week’s inflation data).
According to market forecasts, watch for a third monthly improvement for the building approvals, a slight rise in retail sales and softness in house prices (as other surveys have been showing).
The Reserve Bank’s Commodity Price Index for July is out later today.
Car industry sales figures are due midweek for last month.
And the monthly survey of the service sector is due mid week here and in most major economies around the globe.
The AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver said "we think the Reserve Bank should leave interest rates on hold yet again.
"While the worse than expected June quarter inflation rate means that the risk of rate hike is high, we expect the RBA to balance this out against the increased level of uncertainty globally, the fragile nature of household demand in Australia and the ever strengthening Australian dollar which is doing part of the Bank’s work for it.
"While the RBA will no doubt signal that it retains an inclination to raise rates at some point, the most likely scenario is that rates will remain on hold for an extended period, i.e. well into next year.
"The RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy due Friday will likely see an upwards revision to the Bank’s near term inflation forecasts and a downwards revision to its growth forecasts, and will be watched closely for clues on the direction of interest rates,." Dr Oliver said.
Rio Tinto on Thursday will be the major profit this week. It’s due to release interim figures that will show earnings of around $US8 billion for the six months to June.
Others include Hills Industries, Navitas. Hutchison Telecommunications (Australia) releases interim results, while full year figures will be issued by Seven West Media, Transurban and ResMed
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver said the June half profit reporting season is expected to be a tough one "with softening household demand, rising unit labour costs and the strong Australian dollar all expected to have constrained overall earnings growth to around 13% over the last financial year, driven by the resources sector."
"These factors and global uncertainties are also likely to weigh on outlook statements," he wrote on Friday on his weekly note.
Australian company meetings include (annual or extraordinary) Viralytics Ltd, Eastland Medical Systems Ltd, Norfolk Group Ltd, Brain Resource Ltd, Innamincka Petroleum Ltd and Programmed Maintenance Services.
The annual three day Diggers and Dealers Conference is on in Kalgoorlie, so watch for quite a few bullish updates from gold, copper and other miners (mostly small to medium).
In Asia, the two surveys of Chinese manufacturing activity will be out today: the first will be the government survey from the country’s Logistics Federation, the second will be the final edition of the HSBC/Markit monthly reading. The so-called ‘flash’ survey from this group last week showed a fall in activity below the 50 line which separates expansion from contraction.
The Bank of Japan meets on Friday to consider interest rates. No change is expected.
The central bank may upgrade the tone of its outlook for the economy.
Earnings from Toyota Motor Corp and Honda Motor Co are due this week, along with quite a few other leading Japanese companies.
Singapore Stock Exchange reports on Tuesday.
But Toyota (Tuesday) and Honda (Today) will reveal the size of the impact on their profit and loss account from the March 11 disasters and the damage it did to their car businesses in Japan and other markets, such as the US, China, Australia and Europe.
In the US another big test for the economy with the release of the July jobless and unemployment data on Friday night, our time.
In the US the focus is the debt ceiling negotiations, and then the aftermath, no matter what happens to the ceiling.
On the data front, e
