Once again it’s hard to see where the economic and business focus will fall this week; we are facing another heavy flow of data and reports, especially in Australia.
A major test globally will be the performance of manufacturing sectors in major economies from Australia to China, India, Japan, the UK, Europe and the US.
That data will be issued from Thursday onwards.
In the US the September jobs data (out Friday night our time) will again test confidence.
In Australia, it’s the start of the flow in second quarter and third quarter data with the main one being the private investment data.
In Australia:
We will get a run of domestic demand indicators from August’s new home sales to building approvals for July, private credit data for July as well (due Wednesday), retail sales for July on Thursday and the trade figures also for July on Friday.
Judging from forecasts, we can expect soft building and retail sales figures and a solid trade account.
RP Data house price figures for the month will also be released.
The Reserve Bank’s Commodity Price Index is due out on Friday for July.
Thursday sees the release of the new private investment data for the June quarter.
Thanks to the resources boom it will be solid, but watch here for investment plans for the current financial year from manufacturing and other non-resource sectors.
There could be some falls in the level of spending plans, according to economists.
Full year profit results include QR National, Beach Energy, Centro properties, Centro Retail Trust, Goodman Fielder, AWE, Kingsgate Consolidated, Select Harvests will report, along with Infigen Energy, Nexus Energy, Harvey Norman, Lynas Corporation, Base Resources, Mineral Deposits, Resolute Mining, Murchison Metals, Paladin Energy, Perseus Mining, Platinum Australia, Premier Investments, Cockatoo Coal and Sandfire Resources.
Interim results are due from Macquarie Atlas Roads Group, Minara Resources, Oceanagold and Petsec.
Metcash and FerrAus lead the week’s meetings.
Other meetings include CMI Ltd, Key Petroleum, Silver Swan Group, Tectonic Resources NL, Global Resources, Aviva Corporation, Emerson Stewart Group, Base Resources, CO2 Group Ltd, FairStar Resources, Reward Minerals and Transaction Solutions International.
In the US:
The main focus will be on the ISM manufacturing index due Thursday night, our time, and the August payroll and employment data on Friday.
The Chicago purchasing managers index, a smaller survey of manufacturing, is out Wednesday.
Regional manufacturing surveys from the Fed (New York, Richmond and Philadelphia) suggest Thursday night’s ISM index could show the first dip into contraction (below a reading of 50) since the recession two years ago.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says the ISM could end up around 46 from 50.9 in July.
Friday night’s unemployment could see a rise of 95,000 to 125,000 new jobs, but no change in the 9.1% unemployment rate from July.
US Conference Board consumer confidence data out tomorrow night will show a fall, reflecting the debt debacle and recent share market turbulence.
Data for personal spending, pending home sales and house prices (Case Schiller) are also due for release.
US new car sales for August are due Thursday night, our time, and forecasts are for no change in the monthly rate from July of just over 12.2 million units.
Canadian second quarter economic growth data is due for release. South African growth will also be released and the Bank of Israel votes on a possible rate rise tonight, our time.
In Asia:
Japan will dominate. The country gets a new prime minister today with the DJP voting on a new leader.
Naoto Kan resigned as head of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan Friday after being under pressure for several months.
The DPJ will vote on a new party leader later today after a hectic weekend of campaigning.
Former foreign minister Seiji Maehara is currently being seen as the strongest contender.
But the situation is fluid and the eventual winner could be one favoured by a faction that’s led by Ichiro Ozawa, the discredited former secretary of the party.
As well, Japan’s unemployment, industrial production, retail sales and job vacancies for July will be released.
In China, the slight strengthening seen late last week in the flash HSBC manufacturing conditions index for August suggests a slight gain in the official PMI due out on Thursday.
The updated HSBC survey will also be released on Thursday afternoon.
India is due to announce second quarter economic growth figures tomorrow afternoon, our time.
Economists expect a growth of about 7.6% from the year-ago period, due to slower consumption and investment growth in the wake of several interest rate increases by the Reserve Bank of India.
In Europe:
The surveys of manufacturing are also released on Thursday night, our time, led by the eurozone area survey.
Swiss economic growth will also be released midweek.
French supermarket operator Carrefour and media conglomerate Vivendi are among the European companies reporting earnings this week.
July EU unemployment rate figures are due as well.
