A flood of important data, meetings, decisions and announcements this week, mostly political and economic in Australia, China, the US and Europe.
Central bank monetary policy decisions and associated data will be held or released in quite a few countries, from the US to South Korea, Europe, the UK and Australia.
A couple of them could have a dramatic impact on the Australian and European economies and markets globally (see main story).
But the most important will be in Europe with the EU bailout process to be ruled on by Germany’s highest court.
Take Australia. The Reserve Bank meets in Perth tomorrow and is expected to leave interest rates on hold.
The poor unemployment figures from the US, growing worries about Europe and the mixed nature of demand in some local sectors (retailing and housing) will see rates on hold until at least November when the bank will take another hard look.
And the RBA won’t want to be moving rates ahead of the events in Germany on Wednesday night.
So watch for Governor Stevens’ post-meeting statement, and then a speech in Perth the next morning where he will flesh out the previous day’s comments.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says that "with global growth forecasts being revised down, the non-mining sector of the economy clearly struggling and job losses starting to mount we think its only a matter of time before the RBA softens its concerns on inflation, ahead of a rate cut before year end".
Perhaps the more interesting news here this week will be the June quarter GDP data due Wednesday.
Stronger business investment and exports will offset weakness in consumer spending (with retailers) and housing.
Ahead of that we get the release of June quarter business indicators data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics late today: watch for the figures on corporate profits, wages and salaries and especially business inventories. The latter could be a sleeper.
Tuesday sees the June quarter government finance data and the current account figures for the same period.
August employment data due Thursday is expected to show a 5000 job loss, with the unemployment rate staying at 5.1%.
Car industry figures for August sales are due later today.
ANZ job advertisements data for August is also due, as well as the Melbourne Institute/TD inflation gauge for August.
As well the Commonwealth Bank and the Australian Industry Group release their performance of services index for August.
Tuesday also brings July housing finance data from the ABS, while NSW will unveil its state budget which is expected to see big cuts in spending and government jobs.
No profits are due this week and a number of companies hold shareholder meetings, general or extraordinary.
Meetings will be held by companies including Bounty Mining, Realm Resources, Humanis Group Ltd, GRG International Ltd, Matilda Zircon, Mutiny Gold, Vital Metals Ltd, Gold One International, Icon Resources, Yellow Brick Road Holdings, Dourado Resources, Mantle Mining Corporation, Proto Resources & Investments, Scandinavian Resources, Alloy Resources and Gindalbie Metals Ltd.
In Asia, Chinese economic data for July due Friday is likely to add to confidence that monetary tightening in China is essentially done.
Dr Oliver says "We expect to see a welcome moderation in inflation to 6% from 6.5% in June on the back of a stabilising food prices, and slightly softer, but still solid, growth indicators".
Chinese media outlets and analysts have been forecasting inflation around 6% to 6.2% in the past few days.
Data will be released progressively from around midweek.
The Bank of Japan meets tomorrow and won’t change its current loose monetary policy.
It will want to see what the new government of Prime Minister Noda has in store for the country and the economy.
In the US, markets are closed in the US tonight (our time) because of the Labor Day holiday which marks the end of the US summer season.
The ISM non-manufacturing conditions survey due tomorrow night (our time) is likely to be soft, while the Fed’s Beige Book of anecdotal evidence due Wednesday night (our time) will probably show the US economy continued slowing in August.
On Thursday President Obama speaks on Thursday in a major announcement on a short term fiscal stimulus focused on jobs and possibly the housing market.
One of the moves may be an extension of a payroll tax, while the other could see proposals to cut home loan rates.
Dr Oliver says "It’s debatable as to whether it will gain Republican support in order to pass through Congress though".
A few hours before the President’s speech, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak on the economy.
Thursday sees US international trade data for July released with another big splodge of red ink to be revealed.
In Europe there a couple of major announcements from Germany, as we have seen above on Wednesday night. our time.
On Friday night (our time) Brazil’s central bank shocked markets by swinging from tightening to a half-point rate cut on the weekend.
Central banks in Canada and Korea are expected to leave interest rates on hold, joining Australia and Japan.
As well both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will make monthly interest rate decisions and will sit pat.
Both will come after the German Constitutional Court
