The pace of Chinese imports may have slowed in November, to a ‘weak’ 13.8% annual rate from a year earlier, but that wasn’t the whole story.
In fact the pace of growth was the weakest for nine months, leading some analysts to say that reflected the weakening of demand inside and outside of China.
And while manufacturing has been slowing in the last three months, with industrial production falling to an annual 12.4% growth rate last month; it’s clear that the usual start of winter/end of year seasonal boost was happening in imports of commodities.
Inbound shipments of iron ore surged nearly 30% last month (see next story), despite a sharp fall in crude steel production.
And China’s imports of crude oil, copper and soybeans also jumped strongly last month thanks to lower global prices and the usual resupply ahead of the start of winter and then the New Year break in late January into early February.
As well, there are other factors (mostly seasonal) at work, such as the bunching of imports and their paperwork after the National Day holiday at the beginning of October.
That sees the data, including volumes spilling over into November.
That’s why December’s figures will be watched closely: a fall in volumes will confirm that one-off hit, another solid performance for the likes of iron ore, oil, copper and other key commodities, will confirm the end of year/winter resupply story.
Crude oil imports rose 9% from October to 22.96 million tonnes last month, the second highest volume on record when calculated on a daily basis, hitting 5.52 million barrels a day.
That was short of an all-time high of 5.67 million bpd in September 2010.
China’s refinery throughput surged to a record 9.22 million barrels per day over November, 5.5% above October’s rate, as official prices fell and demand for diesel rose as winter set in.
Seasonal factors were also responsible for the 49.6% increase (to 5.7 million tonnes) in soybean imports in November: in short the usual surge in shipments ahead of New Year in January.
Copper imports were higher for a sixth straight month, rising 17.9% to 452,022 tonnes and hitting their highest level since March 2010.
Three-month London Metal Exchange copper prices traded between $US7,200 and $US8,000 per tonne over November, down from more than $US10,000 in February.
Imports of copper in October were 383,507 tonnes, lower than most analysts had expected, suggesting that some October deliveries had been included in the November figures.
Refined copper production has also been weak, falling 4.5% month-on-month in November, as smelters scheduled overhauls to avoid being hit by falling demand over the end of the year and weak prices.
