Economics dominates the week here and offshore, with important data releases in several countries, central bank meetings, the rising price of oil worrying markets and towards the end, the monthly flow of economic data from China.
Central banks in Australia, the eurozone; the UK, South Korea and New Zealand are all expected to leave monetary policy unchanged at meetings this week.
In Australia, it’s the economy front and centre as the earnings season passes from memory with the Reserve Bank involved in a couple of important events and some vital figures from the Statistics Bureau.
The Reserve Bank board meeting for March tomorrow will see no change in interest rates, but of equal interest will be the speech from RBA Deputy Governor Phil Lowe on Wednesday in Sydney on the economy.
The AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says, "the RBA should be cutting interest rates when it meets on Tuesday, but it probably won’t.
"Sure mining is strong, but its trickle down to the rest of the economy is proving to be just a few drips, particularly with mining investment projects relying heavily on imports.
"Moreover, retailing, housing, manufacturing and tourism are all struggling, layoffs are increasing and the rise in bank mortgage rates and the $A have led to very tight monetary conditions. And this is at a time when inflation is benign.
"Our view is the cash rate should be 0.25 to 0.5% lower. However, going by its recent commentary the RBA doesn’t agree.
"So expect rates to remain on hold for the next few months with the next cut not till May," he wrote.
Dr Lowe’s speech will come less than four hours before the 4th quarter economic growth figures are released in Canberra.
According to surveys from Reuters and Bloomberg, the 4th quarter will see growth around 0.7%, down from the 1% in the September quarter, for an annual rate for 2011 of 2.3%.
That would be down from the 2.5% annual rate in the year to September.
The AMP’s Dr Oliver is looking for growth of 0.5% for the quarter.
Leading up to that release we get the business indicators today with their important updates in inventories, profits, wages and salaries, the 4th quarter and calendar year current account data and the government finances figures for the last quarter of 2011 as well – both tomorrow.
And on Thursday we get the jobs data for February, with some analysts seeing a fall in jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate, and other forecasters seeing a rise and no change: in other words, confusion reigns.
Today we get the job ads survey results for February from the ANZ, and later in the week the monthly performance of services survey will be released.
On Friday we get the trade figures for January, with another surplus expected.
In corporate news, Sundance Energy and Linc Energy reveal earnings results.
In Asia, the monthly data release from China will be dominated by inflation on Friday, and then trade, retail sales, house prices and car sales.
Dr Oliver expects the consumer price inflation rate for last month around 3.5%, down from the 4% plus reading for January.
The NZ Reserve Bank is expected to leave rates on hold as well at its meeting on Thursday.
The RBNZ also releases its first monetary policy of statement for 2013 on Thursday, with the rate announcement.
And, South Korea’s central bank is also set to decide on interest rates, with no change expected after the meeting on Thursday.
In the US the February jobs figures on Friday loom as another vital test of the US recovery.
Economists expect another strong 200,000 payroll report to go with the solid report for January.
America’s trade data for January and factory orders figures are also due for release, while the services sector’s performance survey results for February will be released tonight.
In Europe, besides the meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday night, our time, European Union economic growth figures (GDP) will be released tomorrow.
Preliminary figures last month confirmed that countries like Greece, Italy, Holland and Spain saw weak growth in the three months to December, and even Germany dipped into the red (but France saw weak, but positive growth).
The February purchasing managers index for services for the European Monetary Union and for the UK will be released tonight.
January manufacturing production figures and the February producer price index for the UK will be out on Friday, along with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s GDP estimate for the three months to February.
