A quieter, less hectic week is ahead of us here and offshore after the flood of data and the triple treat on Friday of the good US jobs data, the successful Greek bond swap and some good inflation figures from China which then reported a huge trade deficit for February on Saturday.
This week we expect the wrap up of Greece’s bailout, meetings of the US Federal Reserve as well as the Bank of Japan, as well some important figures from America, but not in Australia after the deluge last week.
After the bond deal concluded late Friday night, Greece will now concentrate on the settlement of the bond swap in coming days, while EU finance ministers are due to meet tonight, our time, to assess the situation and hopefully allow the payment of the initial tranches of the second bailout.
In the US, the Fed is unlikely to reveal any changes to monetary policy following its meeting on Tuesday night, our time.
The 227,000 new jobs in February, plus a further 61,000 in December and January, underlined that the US economic rebound is a bit stronger than many people, the Fed included, understands (judging by recent comments from chairman, Ben Bernanke).
The jobs data and some other figures (a bigger than forecast trade deficit for January with a rise in imports) will mean that a further easing (called QE3) is even more off the central bank’s agenda.
So the week’s data run will get even more scrutiny from analysts than it would have gotten a week or so ago.
Also watch for the February retail sales (an increase of 1% and out tomorrow night), industrial production to increase by 0.5% (Friday), manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia and New York regions to have remained solid (Thursday) and inflation to have been boosted by rising fuel prices (Friday), but the core will be stable.
In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India meets this week and could cut its key rate by 0.25% on Thursday to 8.25%. Late last week it lowered the reserve asset ratios to enable banks to expand lending and try and boost credit in a weakening economy.
The Bank of Japan will issue a statement later today after its meeting this morning in Tokyo.
In Australia the long awaited Reserve Bank Bulletin article on bank funding costs will be released on Thursday and will be poured over by the industry, analysts and critics to find the evidence to justify their stances on the issue and recent interest rate rises.
The National Australia Bank’s business confidence and conditions survey for February is out tomorrow, followed by the Westpac/Melbourne consumer sentiment survey on Wednesday.
Australian Bureau of Statistics for housing finance (Tuesday) and starts (Wednesday) will also be released, as well as new car sales (Thursday)
Credit card lending and debt figures will be released by the RBA later today.
Retailer, Myer Holdings will release earnings results for the first half of the year. They will be down (20 -30% by some analysts’ forecasts), but what will be of greater interest will be the company’s outlook for the rest of the year.
Australian Agricultural Company will hold its annual meeting on Friday.
