Earlier this week, the 53rd of Japan’s 54 nuclear reactors was shutdown for regular inspection, leaving just one reactor operating in the country.
It’s a move full of symbolism in Japan, just over a year after the terrible quake and tsunami which helped create the Fukushima disaster and the nuclear power crisis.
Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) the owners of Fukushima, cut the power output to its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant’s No.6 reactor in Niigata Prefecture, in central Japan.
The shutdown took the best part of two days and means that Tepco, the owner of the stricken Fukushima plant, now has all 17 of its reactors shutdown for the first time since 2003, when it was found that the company had covered up a series of safety problems.
Tepco, which supplies power mainly to the Tokyo metropolitan area, had generated about 30% percent of its capacity with nuclear plants up the Fukushima disaster started on March 11 last year.
Six reactors at the Fukushima Daichi complex were damaged or shutdown as a result of the disasters.
A further six may join them in not being re-opened, ever.
Tepco has been bailed out and supported by the Japanese government for the past 10 months. This week it asked the Government for another $A1.2 billion in aid.
March 2011 saw a series of mishaps, errors and other problems saw explosions, partial meltdowns and other problems close the station, spread fallout across thousands of square kilometres and cause the evacuation of more than 100,000 people, all of whom are unable to return home.
As a result, there are quite a few analysts and others who believe there is an increasing chance that none of the idled reactors will be returned to service in Japan for at least two years, and perhaps longer.
The domestic political situation is gridlocked, with the government and opposition arguing over a hike in the GST.
Nothing else seems to matter and a new look nuclear regulator has been relayed and won’t start until June, at the earliest.
Several local governments are very much opposed to nuclear power or facing growing local pressure to end nuclear power generation.
If none of these stations resume production, Japan will have additional huge costs to decommission them, or keep them idled, but in working condition.
Some analysts in Australia wonder if a lengthy delay in Japan could impact BHP Billion’s thinking about the huge expansion at Olympic Dam which plans to expand its already substantial output of uranium.
Others say the still strong building plans in China means demand for uranium will continue to be strong, a point the Federal Government’s key resources forecaster agrees with.
Before then, Japan and the Japanese economy have to get through another tough summer with a lower margin for error insofar as power supplies are concerned.
As the weather warms, Japan faces a possible energy crisis, considering that last summer it still had 19 nuclear plants in operation.
So far a power crisis has been averted by changing working hours and days and urging business and the public to conserve energy. But this year they have to find extra cuts or energy supplies to make up for the closure of all the nuclear stations.
At the time of the nuclear accident in March last year, 37 reactors were in operation.
And when the country’s 54th reactor (Tomari reactor and power station in Hokkaido) close in early May for inspections, every reactor in Japan will be shut.
In 2010, Japan got 30% of its electricity from nuclear plants, that level plunged amid the disaster and other problems and closures in 2011.
The shutdowns and suspensions of operation has seen Japanese power companies restart idled thermal power plants and ask companies and households to conserve energy in order to make up for the loss of nuclear power.
Tens of billions of dollars worth of extra LNG and thermal coal have been imported from overseas (much of it from Australia).
Figures out yesterday in Japan show the country’s five largest power utilities will have lifted their spending on fuel by 60% by the time the books are ruled off for the current Japanese fiscal year tomorrow night.
That will be recovered by higher charges on consumers, but not so much on business as the companies and the government try to keep exports competitive.
The imports helped drive Japan’s trade position into deficit for five months up to last December, and contributed to the first annual trade deficit for decades.
Japan had a small surplus in January as exports to the rebounding US economy recovered strongly.
That was enough to offset the continuing high cost of the extra fossil fuels for the domestic power industry.
Now, no one can say with any certainty if any of the closed stations will re-open.
The six at Fukushima certainly won’t, and a couple of others are in the very doubtful category because they are located new fault zones or are old. Analysts say a dozen could close permanently.
But the current government has a semi adopted policy to end nuclear power generation in the not too distant future.
Japan’s Nuclear Safety Commission last Friday endorsed the results of stress tests conducted on 2 nuclear reactors at the Ohi plant in Fukui Prefecture.
The national government now has to have the courage to decide if the commission’s endorsement is sufficient to obtain local consent to restart the 2 reactors.
Local approvals will be difficult because of the rising tide of opposition from ordinary Japanese, especially in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster.
That revealed poor planning, regulation, panic and ignoranc
