It was a glass half full / half empty story from yesterday’s jobs report – except for Queensland and Tasmania where the news was bad. Victoria was also a bit on the bad news side of the ledger.
But for the rest of us and the nation as a whole, what you thought of the report depends on whatever narrative you want to pitch about the health of the Australian labour market and the economy.
No doubt those who are of the glass half empty approach to life will have liked the rise in the jobless rate to 5.7% in the Australian Bureau of Statistics report for June. It would have met with their gloom and doom about the economy.
But those of the half full bent would have though the report was modestly encouraging with a rise in part time jobs more than offsetting a fall in full time employment.
The June rate of 5.7% was up from the revised 5.6%,(from 5.5%) in May, seasonally adjusted. But net employment rose 10,300 to 11.669 million in the month, full-time jobs fell 4400 to 8,144 million people and part-time employment rose 14,800 to 3.524 million.
The rise in part-time workers and the fall in full-time jobs is consistent with an economy like Australia’s – sluggish, and showing below-trend growth.
The 5.7% rate is the highest since September 2009, and the number of people out of work rose 23,700 people to 709,300 in June.
Australian Unemployment – Jobless rate up to four year high
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Now that’s higher than it was during the GFC (but the labour force is also bigger, so it’s a smaller percentage). But that rise can also be seen as being positive with an 0.1% rise in the participation rate to 65.3% as more people stayed in the work force looking for a job.
And the employment and unemployment data would have been better had the rate in Queensland not surged to 6.4% from 5.9%. That’s the highest level in the State since 2003. Victoria also saw a big jump of 0.4 points to 5.8% unemployment, but that was driven by a big rise in participation. Tasmania had the highest rate of any state – 8.9%
Queensland’s participation rate remained flat. The result means there are now fewer Queenslanders in work than when Campbell Newman replaced Anna Bligh as premier. The thousands of public service jobs axed and services cut in his time as Premier has come back to bite the state.
Of the rise of 23,700 in the number of people unemployed, more than 12,000 of those came in Queensland in June, so it had a significant impact on the national total.
The rise in part-time workers and the fall in full-time jobs is consistent with an economy like Australia’s – sluggish, and showing below-trend growth. But it hasn’t tanked.
A little more encouraging was the rise in participation in June to 65.3%, up from 65.2% in May, which is always good news, particularly given participation has been the one black spot on this government’s jobs record.
And there was also a rise of 8.8 million hours (to 1.638 billion) worked in June, which partially offsets the 11 million hour fall in June. That’s even better given there was a fall in full-time jobs and a rise in part-time employment (perhaps from full-time labour being switched to fewer hours or days) which meant the number of hours worked should have been a bit lower.
The trend series, which smoothes out the monthly fluctuations, showed a 3,700 rise in employment and 12,000 rise in unemployment in the month, while the unemployment rate was up to 5.7% from 5.6% and the participation rate was steady at 65.3%.
So based on the data we have had from May and June, the second quarter is turning out to be more of what we saw in the first quarter – below trend levels of activity in the domestic economy, with only a few bright spots such as car sales, which hit a record 118,000 in the month, thanks to the end of financial year sales drive from the industry. But that was still 6,000 higher than June 2012.
Housing finance approvals for May, to be released today, will give us more data on the strength of the new home construction boom gathering pace.
