This week: US debt ceiling, RBA minutes, US earnings, Chinese data to dominate
It is going to be another one of those weeks with a multitude of data releases, events and other news that could send markets up, down, sideways or into greater confusion.
The US debt ceiling and budget brawl, economic data from China, the Reserve Bank board minutes from a fortnight ago, US third quarter earnings, annual meetings in Australia, and data in Japan and Europe, all have the potential to impact markets and investor confidence.
At the moment, the US situation is the biggest influence, and will remain so until the situation is sorted out.
Starting in Australia, the Reserve Bank board minutes, to be released late tomorrow morning, will again be examined for further detail on rates, housing concerns and the value of the dollar – all which were high on the agenda in the minutes of the September meeting. No real change in emphasis is expected.
And on Friday we have the first public appearance of RBA Governor Glenn Stevens since early July.
He is due to speak at a business lunch in Sydney, while the head of the bank’s Financial Stability Department, Luci Ellis addresses a financial conference elsewhere in Sydney on the same day. Their comments on house prices in particular, will be of interest.
Both will be also speaking after the US debt ceiling deadline of October 17 – if it has come and gone without resolution, they will no doubt be questioned as to the impact here.
The local annual general meeting season steps up pace, with big names like Telstra and Qantas meeting shareholders, while quarterly sales and revenue reports from some of the nation’s biggest resources companies will also be released, with Rio Tinto, Fortescue and Woodside all scheduled to update the market.
Watch for a maintenance of iron ore production levels and shipments from Rio and Fortescue.
Economic data will come from the Australian Bureau of Statistics in the shape of housing and lending finance, and new car sales today and tomorrow.
Tomorrow’s Telstra ‘s AGM is in Sydney along Cochlear. Rio Tinto releases its third quarter sales and production numbers.
On Wednesday CSL’s holds its AGM Melbourne and on Thursday Newcrest Mining, Fortescue Metals and Woodside Petroleum release their latest quarterly figures. Ansell holds its AGM in Melbourne and Cardno holds its meeting in Brisbane.
Friday sees Qantas’s AGM in Brisbane, while Santos is due to release its third quarter sales and revenue numbers.
In Asia, the Chinese economic data this week will add to the pressure on markets and sentiment, with the third quarter GDP numbers due for release on Friday, along with industrial production, retail sales and urban investment.
As well, the final industrial production data for Japan for August will be released tomorrow.
In the US, the budget and debt ceiling impasse will dominate headlines and market thinking.
With official figures held back by the government shutdown, private surveys and those from the Fed will dominate the news flow.
On this front the New York and Philadelphia regional manufacturing conditions surveys for October (due Tuesday and Thursday respectively), various short term measures of consumer confidence and the NAHB’s home builders’ conditions index (on Wednesday) will be watched for signs that the shutdown and debt ceiling uncertainty have started to damage confidence and demand.
The Fed’s Beige book of anecdotal evidence (also on Wednesday) will also be watched closely for this reason.
If the shutdown ends, data for inflation, housing starts and industrial production are also due for release along with already delayed data for payrolls, unemployment and retail sales.
The US third quarter earnings reporting season goes up a gear this week with tech and bank earnings reports dominating.
Citigroup, Intel and Yahoo report tomorrow night, our time; Bank of America, eBay and IBM on Wednesday; Google and Goldman Sachs on Thursday and Morgan Stanley on Friday.
In Europe, investors will look out for UK unemployment data, industrial production from the eurozone, led by Germany (tonight) and results from luxury brands Burberry and LVMH. Inflation data for the UK and France is out tomorrow night.
Trade data for the eurozone and Italy for August are out Wednesday
