The week ahead: Aussie inflation, US jobs and profits, European production, Japanese exports
Now that the stupidities in Washington are over for the time being, this week takes us back to the delayed and current US statistics, plus a big week for third quarter results, a flash update on Chinese manufacturing, some important data from Europe and results, plus in Australia, inflation, more production updates and AGMs.
On top of that there’s another speech from a senior Reserve Bank official later in the week. The RBA also releases its 2012-13 annual report on Wednesday.
And in the US, Apple makes another big announcement tomorrow night, our time, this one will be will reportedly be an updating and expansion of its iPad line up.
In Australia, the September quarter’s Consumer Price inflation figures, due out Wednesday, are expected to show a rise in the quarter on quarter rate of 0.8%, but a fall to an annual rate of only 1.8% as the boost from the carbon tax in the September quarter of 2012 disappears.
Higher petrol prices and the impact of the weaker dollar, plus the usual July 1 rise in utility costs plus the range of cost rises associated with federal and state budgets, are expected to be the drivers behind the increase.
But some economists say it wouldn’t surprise if the rate is a little weaker than forecast because of weak pricing power across wide sections of the domestic economy might force private companies to swallow some of the higher costs.
Underling inflation (which is tracked by the Reserve Bank) will be around 0.6% in the quarter, a little higher than in previous quarters, but not by much.
That would give an annual unchanged underlying rate of 2.2% which is nothing to worry about. It would be right in line with the RBA’s outlook.
In corporate news, BHP Billiton’s production and exploration report for the September quarter is due out tomorrow and will confirm that it too has experienced a solid quarter for iron ore and copper (just like rival Rio Tinto’s report showed last week).
Oil Search and PetSec are also due to release production reports as well.
In Asia, the most important release will be the early estimate from HSBC/Markit fot the performance of China’s manufacturing sector. After the surprise easing in the final report for September, estimates are for another month of expansion, but at a weaker pace.
And international trade data for September are due for release in Japan later today. Japanese inflation data for September is due out later in the week.
The first estimate of third quarter GDP for South Korea is out later in the week as well.
Annual meetings will dominate the coming week with AGMs from the likes of Brambles, Amcor, Newcrest, AGL Holdings, Wotif.com, Southern Cross Media, Bega Cheese, AGL Energy, Service Stream, Treasury Wines, Origin Energy,Toll Holdings, Forge, Pacific Brands, Carsales and Transfield Services.
In the US, the September jobs report will come out tomorrow night, our time. Economists say 180,000 jobs were created with the jobless rate remaining steady at 7.3%, but the key will be the number of people who have left stopped looking for work and the already weak participation rate.
This is the big bit of data for the Fed’s meeting at the end of the month.
The October jobs report will be released Friday, November 8.
The Bank of Canada meets on monetary policy mid-week.
Other US data next week will include, import prices on Wednesday, industrial production, producer prices and consumer prices next week. Retail sales for September hasn’t been scheduled as yet.
US existing home sales for September are out this week, along with the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, durable goods orders for September, and new home sales for last month.
Among the US companies reporting this week will be, United Technologies, McDonald’s, DuPont, Netflix, UPS, Caterpillar, AT&T, Boeing, Amazon, Proctor and Gamble and Microsoft.
Around 140 of the S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week and Reuters reported at the weekend that overall earnings growth on the S&P 500 is expected to be 2.1% for the third quarter, down from an estimate of 4.5% at the beginning of October and 8.5% in July.
"In terms of revenue, 53 percent of the nearly 100 companies that have reported have beaten expectations and 46.9 percent have missed. In a typical quarter going back to 2002, 61 percent of companies beat revenue estimates and 39 percent missed," Reuters said.
And, the first estimate for the performance of US manufacturing for October is out this week.
In the UK there’s the first estimate of September quarter GDP later in the week, and minutes from the Bank of England’s last meeting.
Internationally, Profits are expected to come from South Korea’s Samsung Electric, Hyundai, Banco Santander of Spain, Germany’s, Daimler, Switzerland’s Credit Suisse, America Movil (Mexico) and Peugeot Citroen of France.
In Europe, there’s producer prices from Germany, Italian industrial production, unemployment for Spain, the so-called "flash" estimates of the performance of manufacturing in Germany, France and the eurozone.
