No really big attention-grabbing events anywhere around the world to completely dominate markets in the coming week.
Probably the most important will be the early or ‘flash‘ surveys of manufacturing for major economies such as China, the US and much of Europe, including the eurozone.
These surveys won’t tell anything new – a continuation of a modest expansion in Europe, a maintenance of a solid expansion in the US, and further growth in China, with the latter having the biggest influence on the local market and the dollar.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank returns to centre stage with the minutes of the last meeting and speeches by Governor Glenn Stevens and one of his senior executives, Markets Assistant Governor, Guy Debelle.
Like the minutes of the RBA meeting, the minutes of the US Fed in late October will be of interest to markets for what was said at the meeting, but subsequent speeches and commentaries have given us a good view of current thinking from both central banks, and we will get an update from the RBA this week as well.
The Bank of England also releases the minutes from its latest meeting mid-week as well.
But the reality is both will be dated because of subsequent commentary and speeches – in the Fed’s case by a number of senior Fed officials including chairman Ben Bernanke and his deputy and probable successor Janet Yellen.
In Australia the Reserve Bank minutes will seem a bit old hat after the post meeting statement a fortnight ago from Governor Glenn Stevens was followed by extensive comments on the economy, dollar, unemployment, wages and inflation in the 4th and final Statement of Monetary Policy of the year.
Of more interest will be a speech on Wednesday by Assistant RBA Governor Guy Debelle and then another public appearance later in the week from Governor Stevens on the 30th anniversary of the floating of the Aussie dollar.
Seeing he’s speaking to the annual dinner of the Australian Business Economists group in Sydney on Thursday night, it’s a sure thing he will take the opportunity to again try and talk down the value of the dollar – as he has been doing for the past 10 months or more.
The dollar is down from its 2013 high of $US1.05 earlier in the year to around 93.68 yesterday, but the bank and many in business want it lower – under 85 USc for comfort.
AUDUSD YTD – RBA to continue to target dollar’s value this week.
There are no statistics of significance due for release this week.
Annual meeting season continues with those for Virgin Australia, Myer and David Jones likely to attract most interest, especially Virgin (for last week’s surprise $350 million issue announcement) and David Jones for the surprise decision by CEO Paul Zahara to quit.
Virgin’s meeting is on Wednesday, along with Myer’s.
David Jones is on Friday. That meeting is likely to see questions from shareholders large and small about the CEO’s still shock departure.
Today, AGM’s will include those from Arrium (the old OneSteel) and iSelect.
Tomorrow sees AGMs for iiNet, Monadelphous Group, Seven Group Holdings and Prime Media Group.
On Wednesday, Virgin, Drillsearch Energy, Cabcharge Australia and Myer will hold their meetings, with Paladin Energy on Thursday.
On Friday, Sydney Airport shareholders meet, as do those for Gindalbie Metals and David Jones.
Elders releases its 2012-13 results this morning – last week it warned they would be huge – losses of some $510 million or so with write-downs and losses on asset sales during the year, as well as job cuts and restructuring charges.
In the US, attention will still focus on the release of the minutes from the Fed’s October meeting (Wednesday night, our time), despite them being somewhat out of date.
Analysts will compare the tone of the minutes to the subsequent comments from senior Fed figures, such as Ms Yellen as they try to discover when the Fed will starting slowing its spending.
On the data front, the November home builders conditions index will be released, along with consumer and producer price inflation, as well as existing home sales for last month.
With major retailers again releasing quarterly results this week, the official sales data for October will be of interest to see if the last month’s government shutdown had any impact.
Results from department store group Macy’s surprised last week by being stronger than expected, but Wal Mart’s US sales again declined for yet another quarter.
So the outlook for US retailing is definitely more mixed than many people had thought.
This week sees results from retailers including hardware giants, Home Depot and Lowes, plus struggling electronics retailer Best Buy and tottering department store group JC Penny.
Lowe’s Cos which is a partner with Woolworths in the latter’s Masters chain of stores in Australian hardware.
In the Eurozone the focus will likely be on the preliminary November business conditions or PMIs (Thursday) which are likely to show a continuing rising trend.
The eurozone also releases its current account and trade balance data.
China’s flash HSBC manufacturing conditions PMI (Thursday) is expected to show a stabilisation around the October reading of 50.9 consistent with continuing solid growth.
There will be also more detail and reaction to last week’s big meeting of the full central committee of the Chinese Communist Party about reform and new approaches to economic policy.
The Bank of Japan’s monthly economic report for November will be published later in the week.
