Rather than the economy, Australian corporate earnings dominate the week ahead (see accompanying story) with the likes of BHP Billiton, Coca Cola Amatil, the NAB, Wesfarmers, Seven West Media, Brambles, AMP and Amcor leading the way.
Offshore, it’s the mid-month manufacturing updates for China, parts of Europe and the US, Fed minutes as well as trade and 4th quarter GDP for Japan.
In Australia, the flow of corporate earnings will drive market sentiment, but also look for contributions from the minutes of the February RBA board meeting out tomorrow.
They won’t advance what we know about RBA thinking on the economy that we have already learned from the end of meeting statement from Governor Glenn Stevens and the first Statement of Monetary Policy from the central bank.
The minutes will tell us the RBA remains very much on hold regarding interest rates.
The December wages data on Wednesday is likely to show that wages growth is very modest at 2.5% year on year consistent with the weak labour market conditions.
In fact the reading could again reveal the slowest growth in wages for a decade or more.
Average week earnings data out on Thursday will also confirm the sluggish nature of wages growth.
And car sales data from the Bureau of Statistics later today will confirm the downturn in sales in January which emerged in the industry figures 10 days ago.
In the US, markets are closed tonight, our time, for a public holiday (Presidents’ Day).
We can expect a slight rise in the February home builders conditions index (tomorrow night), cold weather-related falls in January figures for housing starts (Wednesday night) and existing home sales (Friday night).
The February Markit manufacturing conditions index (Thursday night) along with the New York and Philadelphia regional manufacturing conditions indexes from the Fed (due Tuesday and Thursday nights respectively) are likely to show continued reasonable growth, although all are at risk of being dampened by cold weather conditions.
Inflation data (Thursday night) is expected to have remained benign.
US corporate earnings are headlined by the Coca-Cola Co and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
Both report Thursday night, our time, with Coke doing well and Wal-Mart expected to report weak sales and earnings, thanks to a downturn in the US.
The 2014 forecast from Wal-Mart will be a major part of the report.
The Tesla electric car company also reports this week.
Thomson Reuters said that with 398 S&P 500 companies having reported results so far, 66.3% have beaten earnings expectations, above the historical average of 63%.
More than 64% companies have topped revenue forecasts, above the long-term average of 61%, according to Thomson Reuters.
In Europe, the flash Markit PMIs are expected to confirm a continued gradual recovery in economic conditions.
The UK sees the release of the latest consumer and producer price inflation data, as well as an update on government debt and the latest retail sales figures.
Current account numbers are released for the eurozone, while Italy publishes an update on its trade balance and its latest current account data, as well as inflation figures late in the week.
In Asia, Japanese December quarter GDP data, later today, is expected to show a rebound in growth to 0.7% quarter on quarter (or 2.8% annualised) driven by a combination of consumer spending and business investment.
Japan also releases final estimates for industrial production for December.
The Bank of Japan meets Tuesday but is unlikely to make any changes to monetary policy. And trade figures for January are out on Thursday.
In China, the flash HSBC manufacturing conditions PMI is expected to remain around the 50 level or a touch below. A reading around 49 will see more angst in some sections of the market.
