Ukraine will dominate markets and the week from today, overshadowing a solid week of major figures in some economies.
In Australia though the interim results of the glimmer twins of retailing – Myer (MYR) and David Jones (DJS) will be of considerable interest for the boardroom and management instability seen at both in the past couple of months, and the suggested merger of the duo.
For these reasons media attention for both results will be long and at times boring – the two are not major stocks – they have been overtaken in the retailing landscape by the likes of Kmart and BigW and a host of onine competitors here and offshore.
As well as these results mid week, tomorrow’s release of the minutes from the last RBA Board meeting will repeat the Bank’s comfort with the way the economy is responding to low interest rates.
But it will also repeat that uncertainty remains around the strength of the handover from the resource investment boom to the rest of the economy and as a result a period of stability in interest rates remains appropriate.
It is also likely to reiterate that it still sees the $A as high, a point the events of last week underlined.
The RBA’s quarterly bulletin is due for release on Thursday.
Data for car sales, goods imports (Australian Bureau of Statistics) and skilled vacancies (Federal Government) will also be released.
The latter will be examined for evidence a small rebound in vacancies last month is continuing and whether they support the big rise in jobs in February.
Besides the David Jones profit report on Wednesday and Myer’s on Thursday, results are expected this week from TPG, Ruralco, Brickworks, Washington H Soul Pattinson and New Hope.
In the US, attention will be on the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting ending Thursday morning, our time, which is expected to cut its quantitative easing program by another $US10 billion to $US55 billion a month as the taper process continues.
The impact of severe winter weather in suppressing economic activity won’t alter the Fed’s move.
The central bank it is likely to conclude that the underlying momentum remains solid enough to press on with tapering for now.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver wrote at the weekend that, "With the unemployment rate pushing down to near its 6.5% threshold it is likely to change its forward guidance regarding interest rates to reinforce that rates will remain near zero long after quantitative easing ends".
Chair, Janet Yellen is set to hold a press conference and the latest economic forecasts from Fed staff will be published. It will be Ms Yellen’s first post meeting media conference as Fed chair.
Elsewhere data on home builders’ business conditions is likely to show an improvement from the affected weakness. (That’s out tonight, our time).
But February’s housing starts (Tuesday night) and existing home sales (Thursday night) are likely to have remained soft with the poor weather still impacting activity.
Consumer inflation (Tuesday tonight) is likely to have remained benign, especially after the weak producer price report last week.
Data for industrial production and regional manufacturing conditions surveys will also be released by the Fed and will reflect the impact of the severe winter.
The 4th quarter current account report is out late in the week.
In Europe, the final data for European CPI for February will be published and will confirm the eurozone and beyond remains closer to deflation than inflation.
On Tuesday, trade balance data are released for the euro area and in Russia an update on industrial output numbers is issued.
On Wednesday, the Chancellor of the Exchequer will give the Government’s UK Budget to Parliament.
And the current account data are issued in France, while the eurozone’s Labour Cost Index will be updated.
On Friday, current account numbers are issued for the euro area, followed by flash consumer confidence data.
In Canada, consumer price numbers and retail sales data are published alongside the Bank of Canada core rate.
