The coming week will see data on weak Australian business investment, especially in the resource sector, not so strong Japanese inflation and confirmation of weak US first quarter economic growth.
Plus we will see the fall out of the Presidential election in Ukraine yesterday, and for the European Parliament, and here we have the important vote on the future shape of the Westfield empire of the Lowy family.
The votes in Ukraine and Europe could be destabilising, especially the poll in Ukraine, while the European Parliamentary vote will see the rise of right wing and anti immigration parties in the UK, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Austria.
Markets in the US and UK are closed tonight for public holidays, so trading will be quiet.
In Australia the pointy end of the quarterly flow of economic data starts this week with figures on construction work done on Wednesday, an outline of how the quarterly balance of payments went (midweek as well), and on Thursday the quarterly business investment figures.
These reports will give us an outline of the economy’s first quarter growth which will be known on Wednesday week in the national accounts from the Bureau of Statistics.
The investment figures will be weak, and stronger residential investment in the quarter won’t be enough to offset the impact of the fall in resource investment.
The weakening state of resource investment will be outlined on Wednesday (as well) by an update from the Federal Government’s Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics.
The construction work done figures for the March quarter will also give us more detail on the make up of housing and other forms of investment in this sector.
Of greater interest will be the capital spending intentions data in Thursday’s release from the Bureau of Statistics, which will show further weakness in mining investment over the next year or so.
The AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says we should pay close attention to see if the outlook for non-mining investment is starting to improve.
Reserve Bank credit data for April is out on Friday and is likely to show a further modest lift in lending, with housing leading the day.
We will also get Housing Industry Association figures on new home sales and a report on housing affordability from the Commonwealth Bank.
In the corporate area the split and revamp in the Westfield empire will be voted on in Sydney on Thursday (see separate story).
Other annual meetings will include OZ Minerals and Roc Oil on Tuesday, and Iluka Resources on Thursday.
Aristocrat Leisure will report its half-year results midweek.
And Suncorp has an investor day on Thursday which will no doubt see an updated earnings guidance for the year to June.
In the US, the second estimate of third quarter GDP will be updated and more and more economists are forecasting the 0.1% (annual) first estimate will become a negative figure in a range of minus 0.4 to minus 0.8 with minus 0.6% the midpoint.
The culprit will have been the heavy snow and ice and freezing conditions for much of January and February.
But that’s history because a range of newer economic figures clearly show the economy has rebounded (such as employment, home building and manufacturing).
That will be underlined this week by the release of more data for durable goods orders (tomorrow night), and consumer confidence (also tomorrow night) is expected to have increased slightly.
House prices (also tomorrow night) are also expected to show further gains but pending home sales (Thursday night our time, along with the GDP figures) could be flat after March’s rebound.
The third quarter profit season is all but over with only a few stragglers to report.
In Europe the results from the Ukrainian and EU parliamentary elections will dominate market discussions and nervousness.
Dr Oliver points out that it is doubtful the Ukrainian elections will resolve the uncertainty hovering over the country .
"A successful orderly election with whole of country participation won’t be sufficient to end the crisis, but its nevertheless likely to be required if it is to end."
He wrote at the weekend, “The EU elections are likely to see Eurosceptic parties do well which may cause some investor concern, but it’s unlikely to change policy directions in Europe, in particular support for peripheral countries”.
Apart from that we will get eurozone economic confidence indicators for May on Thursday night, our time.
In London US drugs giant, Pfizer has to decide by tonight if it will persist with its massive bid for rival drugmaker AstraZeneca.
In Asia, data from Japan will dominate, along with the continuing fallout of the military coup in Thailand.
Japanese data for April will show the initial impact from the recent sales tax hike on retail sales and industrial production.
Dr Oliver says this is likely to show up as a fall in household spending and industrial production (both of which were boosted prior to the hike) and a spike in inflation to around 3%.
"Labour market data is unlikely to be much affected," he wrote.
