What are the odds that could Australia avoid an El Nino weather pattern and the associated very dry conditions, event later this year? Falling fast, according to the latest update from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
For the past four months or so, the BOM and other groups in the US have been telling us there is a rising chance that we could be hit by an El Nino dry weather event in the second half of 2014.
In fact it was almost a certainty – according to the forecasts, there was a 70% chance of an El Nino event for Australia (and the rest of the Pacific Rim countries, and others along the Atlantic Ocean who are now thought to be impacted as well, such as Brazil).
The early forecasts had the El Nino appearing in late winter, then it started slipping to late winter to early spring, then spring.
Now the BOM says the possibility of an El Nino weather event (which usually means dry to drought-like weather in parts of the East Coast of Australia) later this year are easing.
In the Bureau’s latest ENSO of update, released on Tuesday, the 70% chance of an El Nino happening has disappeared and the severity of the event has also been cut sharply.
If this happens, it will be good news for companies such as Elders, Australian Agricultural Co, the big retailers, farmers (although many are already battling dry weather in parts of NSW and Queensland).
Insurance company and banks will also benefit, exports of rural goods (sugar and grains) won’t be reduced in 2015 and the economy and consumers as a whole might be spared a bout of food price inflation.
The Bureau said that while warming of the topical Pacific Ocean over the past few months has "primed the climate system for an El Nino in 2014" the rest of the weather system has stopped co-operating, so to speak, as the BOM put it" general lack of atmospheric response over the last month has resulted in some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean."
"While the majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for the spring of 2014, most have eased their predicted strength. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event," the Bureau said.
And to add to the uncertainty, the Bureau says there has been a significant chance in the Indian Ocean. Earlier in the year the Bureau suggested there was a chance (from indicators) of the Indian Ocean’s weather changing to support an El Nino event in the tropical Pacific.
This is what the Bureau said in June about the Indian Ocean; "The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop during spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual."
This is what it now says is happening in the Indian Ocean – that Index has fallen into negative territory and may have helped trigger the above normal wet weather (and snow) in south eastern Australia.
"Changes are also occurring in the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below −0.4 °C (the negative IOD threshold) since mid-June, but it would need to remain negative into August to be considered as an event. Negative values are rare when the central Pacific is warmer than average.
"Model outlooks suggest the IOD is likely to return to neutral by spring. Conditions in the Indian Ocean may have contributed to the above-average rainfall experienced in southeast Australia during June."
A word of warning: some weak El Nino’s turn out to have quite nasty impacts, so if one starts appearing in the next three months, it still could catch us by surprise.
