Central banks in Australia, Europe, India, Japan and the UK will hold some of the attention this week for investors, although a large drop of key Australian figures, and at the end of the week, the monthly economic data from China, will also share the spotlight.
This will be on top of what will be another volatile week for financial markets here and offshore, yet another big week for profit reports from the US, Europe and Asia, not to mention some important figures for the eurozone and EU.
In Australia, the monthly meeting of the Reserve Bank board tomorrow, and then the July jobless and employment data on Thursday, provide the backdrop to what will be some nervy trading on local markets.
There won’t be any change from the RBA to interest rates, and the jobless report will see an estimated 10,000 or so new jobs created, with the unemployment rate remaining steady around 6%, according to most market forecasts.
On Friday the RBA releases its third Statement of Monetary policy for the year which will contain the latest forecasts from the central bank for economic growth and inflation for the next year to 18 months.
The GDP estimates are likely to be lower than in the previous report in May.
Today sees retail sales for June released, along with estimates for inflation from a private survey.
Last week we saw a five year high level of growth in bank lending in June, according to the RBA, while building approvals eased, but still remain solid.
Today also sees the June job ads survey results from the ANZ.
The retail sales figures are again expected to be weak but positive, compared to May’s fall.
And another trade deficit is expected in the June trade account figures tomorrow.
Car industry sales figures for July are due out tomorrow or Wednesday.
The other major event locally is the June profit reporting season which goes up several notches over the coming week.
Eight major companies are reporting including Downer and Rio Tinto. The latter’s result will be looked at for any word on the timing of capital management moves.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver said on the weekend, "Consensus earnings estimates for 2013-14 are for 12% growth led by resources with +28%, banks at +10% and industrials ex-financials at +3%".
He said a combination of factors will impact earnings.
These include lower iron ore prices, the higher $A, and the hit to confidence from the Budget in the June quarter.
These he said suggest a bit of downside risk to consensus estimates for resource and industrial stocks, although the banks are likely to remain strong.
"Given relatively elevated PEs compared to a few years ago underperformers are likely to be slammed," Dr Oliver wrote.
"Most interest is likely to be on outlook statements with resources companies at risk.
"But a bit of upside potential for companies exposed to housing and non-mining construction and retailing.
"Consensus 2014-15 earnings growth estimates are relatively modest at +5%, with resources at 2%, banks at 4% and industrials at 10%."
Besides Rio and Downer, Argo investments will report today, Cochlear Wednesday, and Tabcorp with Rio on Thursday.
On Thursday morning our time, Rupert Murdoch’s 21st century Fox will report in the early morning in New York, while on Friday News Corp and its 62% owned subsidiary, REA Group, will report in the early morning in New York and Australia.
In Asia, the monthly data dump in China happens Friday and Saturday.
Friday sees the focus on July’s trade data, along with industrial production, retail sales and urban investment, plus property prices.
Import figures for iron ore, copper, oil and other major commodities will be watched closely, along with the level of steel production.
Saturday sees both the producer and consumer prices indexes issued. No significant change is forecast.
In Japan the leading index will be released mid week, it is likely to signal a slowing economy. Machinery orders for June are also due to be released.
And the Bank of Japan issues its latest monetary policy statement which will be closely examined to see if there’s any move to further boost spending after the weak figures last week for retail sales, industrial production and real wage growth which again fell by an annual 3.8% in June, the same as in May.
In the US a quiet week after the excitement of last week, but there are still a couple of important sets of data to be released.
The Fed’s loan officers survey (tonight, our time) is expected to confirm that lending conditions are favourable.
The services index (tomorrow night, our time ) is expected to show that services sector conditions remain solid and the trade deficit (Wednesday night) is likely to be flat.
Productivity growth (Friday night) is expected to show a bounce back from a weak report earlier in the year.
The June quarter reporting season continues as well with a host of major companies down to report in the US, Europe and Asia including major media groups led by the Murdoch family’s duo News Corp and 21st Century Fox as well as Fox’s prey Time Warner, and the biggest media group in the US Walt Disney, and Viacom.
Others to report include AIG, Toyota, Credit Agricole, HSBC, Standard Chartered (which will report a big drop in profit, with rumours of a possible capital raising) and Softbank.
In Europe, the monthly meeting of the European Central Bank will be under growing pressure after eurozone inflation fell to just 0.4% (annual) in July.
That has produced more forecasts of a dip into deflation later in the year and calls for the ECB to do ‘something’.
But having just eased again two months ago, the ECB (Thursday night, our time) is unlikely to make any changes.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says the ECB "is likely to restate its easing bias and that it is continuing to look into a quantitative easing program”.
Retail sales figures for the eurozone and its member countries are out tomorrow night, our time.
And industrial production figures for Germany and France are due out this week.
