Interest rates and economic growth figures, plus retail sales, building approvals and trade, and car sales – it’s a packed to the brim start to a new month and week for Australian markets and investors.
Offshore, it’s central banks in the UK, Europe Japan, Canada and India, along with the start of monthly survey results of manufacturing in most major economies, starting with China.
And that’s not forgetting the most important set of monthly figures around the globe – the US jobs and unemployment report – this time for August, which is out Friday night, our time.
It’s also a holiday today in the US for Labor Day, so markets will trade quietly today in Asia and Europe tonight and tomorrow.
In Australia this week sees one of the heaviest data releases for the year, centred on the second quarter GDP figures in Wednesday’s national accounts.
In the lead up to those we get business indicator figures today consisting of data on inventories, wages and salaries and wholesaling.
Tomorrow it’s the current account data for the June quarter which will determine just how strong GDP growth was in the three months.
And government finance figures for the quarter are also out, and they are the most impenetrable for ordinary investors, but they could be very important this time.
Then there’s the growth figures on Wednesday – the report will also give us the growth figures for the 2013-14 financial year.
Around 0.3 to 0.5% seems to be the range for quarter on quarter growth, coming back from the strong 1.1% reported for the first quarter.
But a couple of economists have warned of the chance of a flat quarter for growth, or perhaps a small negative reading.
Around this release we have the usual start of month figures on retail sales for July (out Thursday), trade for July (the same day) and building approvals for July (out tomorrow).
The trade data later in the week will standout with another large deficit expected because of falling prices for iron ore and coal.
And of course we can’t forget the monthly Reserve Bank board meeting tomorrow which will again sit pat and not shift rates.
The usual scrutiny will be given to the post meeting statement from Governor Glenn Stevens about the timing of the next rate movement, but that will be to no avail.
On Wednesday, a couple of hours after the GDP figures are released, Mr Stevens delivers a speech in Adelaide on the economy.
Later this morning the monthly survey of local manufacturing will be released – it wouldn’t surprise to see another rise in activity (small though).
The August figures on house price rises is out later today as well, along with a private measure of inflation.
Industry data on August car sales is due out later in the week.
The reporting season has ended for the June 30 companies. There will be the usual flood of late reporting from small mining companies this morning. There will be plenty of losses in those reports.
In the US, we can expect more solid readings from the two surveys of US manufacturing conditions PMIs (tomorrow night our time) and the survey of service sector conditions (on Thursday night our time).
But the main focus is likely to be on the August jobs data and unemployment report on Friday night our time, with surveys suggesting a range of 205,000 to 220,000 new jobs were created last month and the unemployment rate will dip to 6.1%.
The Fed’s Beige Book of anecdotes on the economy (on Wednesday night) is expected to continue to paint a picture of solid economic activity across the country) and trade data (on Thursday night) will show another deficit, but lower imports of oil.
The US reporting season has all but faded and only a handful of second and third tier companies are due to report – tax group H&R Block and home builder Toll Brothers stand out, along with surfwear maker and retailer Quicksilver and mining equipment maker Joy Global.
The Bank of Canada releases its latest interest decision on Thursday.
In Europe, the main focus will be on the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday night, our time, after inflation in the eurozone fell to a five year low of 0.3% in August, down from 0.4% in July.
Expectations are rising that the ECB will try and position itself to try and change policy to attempt to ward off deflation.
Following President Draghi’s last weekend in the US comments regarding falling inflationary expectations, the AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver reckons there is a 50/50 chance that the ECB will unveil a quantitative easing program involving the purchase of private sector asset backed securities or give a great big hint that something significant is on the way.
Data on the second quarter growth figures for the EU and eurozone will be released late in the week.
Germany releases more data later tonight, our time. As well, industrial producer prices for the eurozone and then retail sales figures will be issued Tuesday and Wednesday nights, our time.
German industrial orders and production figures will be released on Thursday and Friday respectively and will be watched closely for signs of any more weakness after the surprise fall in July.
In Asia, the Bank of Japan also meets Thursday but it’s unlikely to make any changes to monetary policy, while the quarterly Tankan (survey) of medium sized and large companies about confidence and spending intentions, is out later today.
After last week’s lacklustre data for July on inflation, industrial production, retail sales and employment, the pressure is mounting on the central bank to take new action to boost the economy.
In China, the official manufacturing conditions PMI for August (out Monday from the government and HSBC/Markit) is likely to have fallen back a bit in line with the HSBC flash PMI issued last month.
The monthly survey of the country’s services sector will show a slowing in the pace of activity, according to economists.
