China’s official statistics continue to hold a unique ability to surprise on the upside.
Yesterday we saw another example with China’s exports seeing the fastest growth in 19 months, up 15.3% in September in a major surprise for analysts.
Some analysts reckoned it was the surge in exports of Apple iPhone 6 models which powered the surprisingly strong rise in exports.
But that doesn’t explain the equally odd sharp rise in imports, at a time when commodity prices were falling.
Imports rose 7% last month, after falling in August, and forecasts of another fall in September. That confounded quite a few analysts.
Iron ore imports rebounded to the second highest on record at more than 84 million tonnes, while monthly crude oil imports rose to the second highest on record.
In fact the overall growth rate in imports in September was the highest level since December 2013.
And yet this happened with the price of major imports such as oil copper, iron ore, soybeans and coal at levels less than what they were late last year, while the Chinese economy is weaker than it was at the back end of 2013.
China’s total foreign trade rose a surprisingly strong 11.3% last month to $US396.4 billion.
The trade surplus in September more than doubled from last year to $US31 billion, but was sharply down on the record $US49.8 billion seen in August.
China trade data surprises, eases slowdown fears
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A more accurate idea of China’s real trade performance can be seen from the data for the first nine months of this year – up 3.3% to $US3.16 trillion with exports up 5.1% at $US1.7 trillion, imports up just 1.3%t at $US1.46 trillion. That makes the strong performance in September look very odd.
The oddness of the September data was further underlined by the third quarter data, with exports up 12.8% year-on-year while imports rose a mere 0.9%.
China’s trade surplus in the first three quarters jumped 37.8% to $US231.6 billion, purely as a result of the sluggish growth in imports (and falling prices for those commodities imported).
The most suspect figure for September was the 34% jump in export to Hong Kong from a year ago, after falling 2.1% in August, recalling reports that the over invoicing lurks of 2012 and early 2013 were back in vogue.
That exceeded the rise in exports to the US and Europe in the month.
Exports to the US rose 10.8% last month from a year ago, 13.8% to the 13 countries of ASEAN, and by just on 15% to the EU. But they eased 5.1% to Japan.
But imports from Hong Kong fell so much that two trade with the territory fell 13% in September from a year ago. Definitely suspect!
Third quarter GDP along with September retail sales, industrial output and investment data will be released a week today, on October 21.
