At first glance it will be a relatively quiet week ahead for the world’s markets, but looking through the headlines there will be a couple of important bits of data and reports that tell us a little more about the state of the global economy.
They include mid-month reports on manufacturing and services for economies such as China, the eurozone and the US.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank’s six monthly Financial Stability Review (out Wednesday) will tell us the Australian financial system remains in good shape, but will again highlight the risks in the household sector associated with rapid house price gains, especially in Sydney.
And the NSW election on Saturday March 28 will be watched closely, not only for the actual result, but also the implications for privatisation.
The vote in the Legislative Council (upper house) will be the most important, and will take some weeks to sort out.
If the current Liberal/National Party Government is returned with an upper house majority, it will become the only state to significantly implement the Federal Government’s infrastructure asset recycling program.
If there’s no majority, or if the government is defeated (a big surprise) it will threaten the privatisation idea and also the stability of the Federal Government.
Nationally there are no stats of any significance due out this week in Australia.
Corporate reporters will include New Hope and TPG Telecom tomorrow, Nufarm (Wednesday), Brickworks (Thursday), Washington H Soul Pattinson (also on Thursday) and Premier Investments later today (all interims).
Kathmandu releases its interim on Tuesday. The company has downgraded earnings a couple of times.
Internationally, Markit releases flash manufacturing activity for China, Japan, the eurozone and the US, all of which will provide fresh evidence on the weak health of the global economy at the end of the first quarter.
In the US, besides the manufacturing data, we will also see the release of final GDP numbers for the 4th quarter of 2014 on Friday night, our time, and the consumer inflation figures for February, out tomorrow night, our time.
Another weak inflation reading is expected which will reinforce the Fed’s new forecasts of lower price pressures in the months ahead, while the GDP report is expected to be around an annual 2.2% (unchanged from the second estimate), down from the 5% annual rate in the third quarter
As well, data for February for existing and new home sales (due tonight and tomorrow night, our time respectively), house prices (tomorrow night) and durable goods orders on Thursday night.
It’s the week after one of Federal Reserve Janet Yellen’s quarterly press conferences, so the Fed members will be out in force, ramming home the message in a series of public appearances.
St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, Stanley Fischer the vice chair, and John Williams the San Francisco Fed president are among those speaking. The US reporting season has virtually ended for December 31 companies, with video games retailer GameStop the final S&P 500 company to report.
Early 2015 balancing companies are now releasing their figures and among those this week will be Conagra, Accenture and Lululemon in the US.
Blackberry in Canada, Deutsche Bank in Germany, Prada in Italy and Baoshan Steel in China.
In Europe, consumer price inflation for February will be updated and will probably show a steady result after a fall of 0.3% in January.
The flash manufacturing reports for the eurozone will come on the top of improving growth forecasts for the area in recent weeks, as well as a huge trade surplus and a belief that growth this quarter will be positive. The weaker euro seems to be helping growth.
In Asia, the Chinese manufacturing flash report Tuesday, our time, will link to worries about the strength of the Chinese economy, while Japanese data for employment, household spending and inflation will all be released on Friday.
