The week ahead will see decisions from a number of central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve’s April meeting, US first quarter GDP, US earnings (led by Apple early tomorrow), the start of month surveys of manufacturing from around the world starting with China, and the end of a mixed month of market trading.
And then there’s Greece – it has 1.6 billion euros of public servant wages, salaries and pension payments due this week, then a 200 million euro payment to the IMF on Friday (and another half a billion on May 11).
The start of month final reports on the health of manufacturing will be released on Friday, starting with China where two reports will be released, one from the government and the other from HSBC/Markit, which showed a surprise dip in its ‘flash report’ last week.
Besides the Fed, central banks in Japan, New Zealand, Sweden and Brazil meet to discuss monetary policy conditions and possible policy changes.
In the US, the Fed releases its usual end of meeting statement early Thursday morning and it is expected to be in no hurry to raise interest rates.
The Fed and Chair Yellen have already signalled that no hike is likely this month, so the focus will be on any signals in the post meeting statement as to how close a rate hike is.
March quarter US GDP growth data is also out on Wednesday night with another three months’ data showing some weather-related damage.
Growth is forecast around 1% annual, which will tell us that a rate rise is not needed quickly. That will be down from 2.2% (annual) in the final quarter of 2014 and 5% in the three months to September.
The US also sees data on home prices (Tuesday night, our time), consumer confidence and pending home sales (both Wednesday night) and the survey of US manufacturing conditions on Friday night.
The March earnings season will be front and centre this week with 100 S&P companies due to release their financials, led by Apple tonight and a slew of energy groups (Shell, BP, Chevron and Exxon Mobil), big drug groups such as Pfizer and car companies in the US (Ford) and offshore (Honda, Daimler, Volkswagen).
The Bank of Brazil could surprise with a rate cut, seeing the economy is weak, but analysts say that with inflation running at an 11 year high, a rate hike seems more likely.
In Europe, the focus will be on the funding of Greece, and its inevitable march towards a new bailout or default.
There’s also eurozone inflation and unemployment on Thursday night. The inflation figures should show the deflationary pressures easing as oil and energy prices rebound.
The weaker than expected early report of eurozone manufacturing will be confirmed in the final reports for April released on Friday.
First quarter GDP figures for the UK will be issued this week, around a week before the May 7 general election. Growth of around 0.5% quarter on quarter is tipped.
In Asia, besides the manufacturing sector surveys especially for China, data from Japan is front and centre this week with the usual end of quarter release of retail sales, unemployment, industrial output, and especially inflation which will show another fall.
The Bank of Japan meets this week and is expected to expected to leave monetary policy unchanged when it announces its decision on Thursday.
In Australia, there’s another speech by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens tomorrow with the usual interest rate comment-watch from economists and analysts, especially after the weak inflation figures for the March quarter. The RBA board meets a week tomorrow to discuss rates.
On the data front, expect another moderate gain in private lending for March (watch to see if business lending is still growing) on Thursday. But the main focus will be on whether housing investor credit continues to slow.
April house prices are out on Friday, with analysts watching price growth in Sydney. Producer prices and import and export price data for the March quarter will be out late in the week, along with the usual monthly manufacturing survey.
Thursday sees the struggling Ten TV network release its results for the six month to February 28.
And the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will issue its latest interest rate decision early Thursday morning.
