Even more important data and central bank meetings for a number of countries in the coming week – which features the usual start of the month data dump globally in a host of countries, such as Australia.
Interest rate decisions in Australia, the UK and the eurozone, US jobs data on Friday night, Australian GDP on Wednesday and the start of month surveys of manufacturing and services around the world (two from China), plus inflation and employment data for the eurozone as well.
There will be more speculation and rumours about Greece’s financial position and possible default, while OPEC has its half yearly meeting on Friday night in Vienna, which will grip the interest of oil markets and energy companies around the world.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank interest rate decision (tomorrow) and the March quarter national accounts (Wednesday) will dominate the coming week.
The RBA is expected to leave interest rates on hold, despite last week’s weak construction and private investment figures. The RBA had factored that in to its lowered forecasts for the economy and not enough has changed since the cut at last month’s meeting to trigger a third reduction at tomorrow’s meeting.
On the data front March quarter GDP growth (Wednesday) is forecast to come in around zero to 0.3% quarter on quarter with annual growth at a poor 1.5% to 1.7%.
Before the GDP figures are released we get data on wages, salaries, sales and business inventories today, while tomorrow sees the release of March quarter current account and government finance figures.
Dwelling construction and consumer spending are expected to just offset drags from investment and a flat trade contribution, according to AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver.
The monthly survey of capital city house prices (out today) is expected to see a further Sydney-driven gain in home prices, while a small fall in building approvals for April (also out today) and another 0.2% to 0.4% rise in retail sales for April (out Thursday).
The AIG’s manufacturing and service sector conditions PMIs are expected to remain subdued (today and Wednesday) and trade data (also out Thursday) will also be released, along with the TD Securities inflation report later today.
Local car sales data from the industry will be out later in the week.
In the US, the week will be dominated by the May employment and jobless reports, out Friday night our time. Around 215,000-230,000 new jobs are estimated to be been created last month – down on the 300,000 a month average in 2014, but in keeping with the gains in April. The jobless rate will remain around 5.4%, according to market forecasts.
Data for private income and spending, the private consumption deflator, construction spending and the trade balance will also be released in the coming week, all for April.
US car sales figures for last month will be released today and tomorrow.
In Europe the main focus will be on negotiations with Greece with an IMF payment deadline set for Friday, and more talks to be held during the week.
The IMF will allow Greece to miss Friday’s payment and bundle it up with others due later in June and repayable at the end of the month.
The speculation over Greece will overshadow the European Central Bank’s meeting on Wednesday night our time.
No interest rate movement will be made, but Dr Oliver says the ECB head Mario Draghi will probably have something to say about the recovery in the eurozone economy (and the disappearance of the deflation danger) and possibly Greece.
On the data front, Eurozone inflation and employment (Tuesday night) will show further signs of retreat from deflation at a headline level but with core inflation remaining too low at just 0.6% year on year. Retail sales and unemployment data will also be released Wednesday.
Eurozone PMIS for the areas manufacturing sector, out tonight, will show the recovery remains on track, while the services sector report on Wednesday could be a bit more muted.
Revised first quarter GDP numbers will be issued for the eurozone on Thursday night.
And in the UK, the Bank of England meets on Thursday, but don’t expect any rate cuts.
And OPEC meets for the 167th time in its history in Vienna on Friday, and before that its usual two day energy seminar will be held.
In Asia, the monthly surveys of manufacturing and services will dominate, along with the health of the wobbly Chinese stockmarket.
China’s official manufacturing conditions PMI may show a slight gain consistent with the HSBC flash PMI that has already been released.
Watch for the final report from the HSBC/Markit survey also today.
And the surveys of China’s service sector will be out mid week as well.
