China and Greece will dominate events around the world for yet another week – China for the continuing health of its markets, plus the vital June and June quarter economic data, and Greece because of the fallout from the latest bailout talks.
The ramifications from both will outweigh the stepping up of the June 30 earnings seasons here, in the US, Asia and Europe, plus some important economic data from America.
Locally it will be a slow week for data, with a scattering of earnings reports, updates and June quarter, half year and full year production reports from the mining sector.
Starting with China, June data on trade is due to be released later today (month, quarter and year to year figures).
A trade surplus of around $US55 billion is expected, largely due to another slide in the cost of imports, and another weak month for exports. That has been the dominating feature of China’s trade account this year, allowing it to generate huge monthly trade surpluses.
Exports in May fell 2.5% from May 2014, while imports were down 17.6%, thanks to lower prices and lower volumes of oil, copper iron ore and a host of other commodities.
On Wednesday China’s GDP figures for the June quarter will be released. Forecasts have settled on an annual rate of 6.8% to 7%. We also get the usual monthly activity figures covering retail sales, production and investment and some early data on property investment and use.
All this will be overlain by continuing focus on the state of health of China’s sharemarkets.
We can expect more rises, seeing the market has shrunk to less than half the size it was a week ago with so many companies having suspended themselves to prevent financial damage from falling share prices.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank releases May data on credit and debit card lending today, while the Bureau of Statistics releases the monthly lending finance data, covering personal, business, housing and lease loans.
Tomorrow the monthly NAB business survey for June is released. Business confidence is at a nine-month high thanks to the tax write-offs in the Federal Budget.
On Wednesday, the Westpac/Melbourne Institute monthly measure of consumer sentiment is released. The ABS will release figures on dwelling commencements for the March quarter and new car sales for June.
The earnings and production reports will be scattered throughout the week – the half year production and sales figures for Rio Tinto will lead the interest, along with Fortescue’s figures, plus those from Santos on Friday.
Other production reports will be released by Whitehaven Coal and Iluka.
Results to be released include Mirrabooka Investments (later today) and Djerriwarrh Investments on Thursday.
Annual meetings include CSR, Warrnambool Cheese and Butter and Australian Agricultural Company.
In the US, the Fed’s Beige book on Wednesday night, our time, will add to the information about the rebound in the economy since the winter weather impacted first quarter.
Tomorrow night, our time, retail sales for May will be released, along with the data on business inventories.
On Wednesday night, our time, the Beige Book will be released alongside the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production figures and the producer price index.
On Thursday the Home Builders index is due for release alongside the Philadelphia Fed Business outlook, while on Friday night we get consumer price inflation data, housing starts, building permits and the preliminary reading on consumer confidence for July.
The US earnings season cranks up a notch in the coming week with 40 companies in the S&P 500 are due to be released. These will be dominated by the big banks – Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Mattel, CSX, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, PNC and a host of smaller financials. General Electric, Honeywell, Intel and Johnson & Johnson are also due to report.
In Europe the European Central Bank’s council meets on Thursday night, our time, in what could be a crucial meeting for the immediate future of the eurozone, its finances and stability.
The latest inflation and trade data for the eurozone will be out on Thursday as well. Inflation data for the UK will be out midweek.
