It will be a hesitant day of trading on markets in Asia and for the start in Europe while they await the August jobs data for the US. That will be released at 10.30 pm Sydney time and most US analysts see more than 200,000 jobs being created and the jobless rate remaining steady at 5.3%.
Some economists in fact see the possibility of a bigger than expected surge in new jobs, given the flow of solid economic data in recent weeks – with some outlier estimates well above 230,000 new jobs being created last month.
That would be enough to to set markets running towards an expected interest rate rise from the US Fed on September 17.
But a rate rise would be despite the strong hint from the IMF yesterday that the Fed wait until mid 2016 to lift rates because of wobbly global economic growth (as we found in the June quarter GDP figures this week).
Our market will start with a possible small gain of around 17 points in overnight trading on the ASX 200 futures contract. But after yesterday’s odd bout of trading which saw an early surge, and then a steady retracement and final loss on the day of 1.5%, anything is possible.
The Aussie remained over 70 US cents this morning, but will slide lower as the tide of weak data from the local economy continues in the next month – a US rate rise on September 17 could see a big fall in the Aussie’s value.
Overnight a Wall Street rally ran out of steam, and the markets limped to an uncertain close ahead of the August jobs report.
The jobs report is the last major piece of US data before the Fed’s two day meeting starting September 16.
The S&P 500 was up more than 1% in early trading, but faded and closed just 2.27 points, or 0.1% higher to 1,951.13.
The Dow was up 200 points in early dealings, but it slid as well to end just 23.38 points, or 0.1%, higher at 16,374.76, and Nasdaq ended the day down 16.48 points, or 0.4% at 4,733.50.
US crude oil futures were easier in Asian trading, but reversed and rose as far as $US48.42 in early US trading, but then fell to below $US47 a barrel. But that was still enough to leave it higher on the day.
In fact October West Texas Intermediate crude futures still logged their fifth gain in six sessions adding 50 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $US6.75 a barrel in New York. Brent crude futures in London added 18 cents, or 0.4%, to $US50.68 a barrel.
But it was another weak performance for gold as the US dollar firmed. Comex gold futures fell for a second straight session.
December gold futures lost $US9.10, or 0.8%, to settle at $US1,124.50 an ounce in New York.
In other metals, Comex December silver ended at $14.70 an ounce, up 4 cents, or 0.3%.
But copper rebounded in London and the US (despite the Shanghai futures market being closed) December copper added 5.5 cents, or 2.4%, to $US2.385 a pound, on top of Wednesday’s 1.2% gain.
In Australia the ASX 200 ended 74 points or 1.5% at 5027.8, while the All Ordinaries closed 71 points down to 5048.6.
