China dominates the start and the end of this week.
But watch the Canadian elections results tonight and tomorrow our time – it’s a knife edge at the moment- and the results might not be known for a day or two.
First up, the September quarter Chinese economic growth figures are due later today and then at the end of the week thew the flash report from the Caixin/Markit survey of Chinese manufacturing at week’s end.
The GDP figures are expected to show Chinese economic growth slowing to an annual rate of 6.8% year in the three months to September, from 7% in the June quarter.
However, September data for retail sales, industrial production and investment (Monday) and the October Caixin manufacturing conditions PMI (Friday) may show signs of stabilising.
But if that stabilising appears it will be at a low level. But any good news from the Chinese economy will be welcomed (but doubted by the usual collection of bears and sceptics).
If GDP growth falls below the 7% mark, this would be the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2009, when the economy grew by 6.2%.
This would clearly be an argument for China’s central bank to cut interest rates further and possibly introduce other measures in order to stimulate the economy.
The central bank has cut interest rates five times since November.
And on Friday the flash report on Chinese manufacturing will be one of a number of similar reports from the world’s major economies during the day and evening and will update our view of the health of the world’s manufacturing sector.
Friday also sees the release of house price data for China for September with the central question: will the tentative recovery in prices in some big cities continue and spread to other parts of the country?
Canadian’s long (11 week) election campaign ends tonight and it’s very close.
It has been a tight three-way race in which the Conservatives (led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper), the New Democrats (led by Tom Mulcair) and the Liberals (led by Justin Trudeau – son of former prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau) has at times held poll position.
Ahead of tonight’s voting, fewer than twelve percentage points separate the parties, according to the Canadian Broadcasting Company’s polling aggregate. The Liberals are in a battle with the Conservatives for the lead, but were ahead at the weekend and Mr Trudeau could follow his father and become leader of Canada.
Mr Harper has ruled for nine years and won the last poll in 2011.
In the US, the Markit manufacturing conditions index on Friday is likely to come in around a solid reading of 52.5 to 53.
The home builders’ conditions index (tonight) is expected to be steady, and small gains are expected in housing starts (tomorrow night), and both home prices and existing home sales (both Thursday night).
The US September quarter earnings reports will continue to flow with over 110 S&P 500 companies reporting and dozens of major companies from elsewhere in the world.
In Europe, the European Central Bank is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged (Thursday night) but retain a strong easing bias given global uncertainties and the dip into deflation last month.
In Australia, the minutes from the RBA’s last Board meeting (tomorrow) will no doubt be watched for any clues regarding the interest rate outlook but they are now rather dated given the decision by Westpac to increase variable mortgage rates for owner occupiers and investors by 0.2%.
There’s also a speech by RBA Deputy Governor Edey on Thursday.
Data for merchandise goods imports, the detailed data on the September labour market report, the Westpac Leading Index and skilled vacancies will also be released.
