Outside of Australia and the Reserve Bank meeting tomorrow, the other major data release (and more important for global markets) is the US jobs figures and unemployment data for October to be released on Friday night, our time.
Another bit of important global data are the monthly surveys of Chinese manufacturing – the official Chinese business conditions PMI released yesterday will be followed by the Caixin/Markit survey later today.
In the US, October employment data (Friday night, our time) is the most important release for markets because of the importance it has assumed in connection with the Fed’s decision-making on interest rates.
The October report will be watched closely as a guide to whether the Fed will raise rates in December.
Economists are forecasting around 180,000 new jobs last month – better than the figures for August and September when a noticeable slowing emerged.
But around 180,000 new jobs, while solid, will be down on the 200,000 a month pace from the first few months of 2015. Unemployment is forecast to be around at 5.1% and wages growth around 2.3% year on year – so no real change.
Other US data sees the October manufacturing conditions survey released tonight, our time (which could come around 50, or lineball with expansion or contraction), and then the services sector survey will be released and it is expected to throw up a stronger result around 56.
The trade deficit for September is out Wednesday and will be another factor to take into account for the second estimate of third quarter GDP later this month.
And the September quarter profit results also continue to flow. American International Group reports, as does electric car maker and Tesla. Visa, the credit card, group reports.
Media companies, Time Warner and 21st Century Fox report, along with News Corp, Walt Disney and Facebook, which could be the week’s most important. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reports after trading on Friday.
US car sales data for October will be released tonight and tomorrow – will the boom continue?
In the UK the Bank of England meets Thursday night, our time, and won’t move on interest rates.
In Asia, China’s manufacturing conditions PMIs are expected to show signs of improvement. Both are best read in tandem because they reflect activity in different sectors of Chinese manufacturing – the official one looks at larger companies, the Caixin survey looks at smaller groups.
Both were in contraction last month. Investors are looking for a small improvement in the official survey back to expansion.
China’s trade data for October will be released next Sunday (November 8) and will be watched for improvement in exports and imports, especially exports.
In Australia, the AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says the “RBA is expected to cut the official cash rate to 1.75% from 2% when it meets Tuesday”.
“Of course the RBA may opt to wait for more information having expressed comfort recently about current interest rate settings – which makes our call for a November cut a close one.
"But if there is no cut Tuesday then expect one sometime in the next few months.
“The risk in not cutting in November though is that the longer the RBA waits the more it may have to do next year – so easing now is likely to be the path of least regret,” Dr Oliver wrote at the weekend.
The RBA’s Statement of Monetary Policy on Friday will contain the updated estimates for Australian growth and inflation for this year and 2016. Governor Stevens speaks on Thursday in Melbourne, and his deputy Phil Lowe is on a business panel in Sydney.
Datawise, it’s the start of the month, so we get building approvals for September later today as well as the CoreLogic RP Data dwelling price indices.
Retail sales and the trade data for September are both out on Wednesday – the trade deficit will continue at its current high level and retail sales are forecast to have grown 0.4%.
Industry car sales data for October will be issued midweek.
