China Trade Data Points To Waning Demand

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

A weak trade report from China for October as exports did worse than forecast and low commodity prices again depressed the value of imports.

Chinese imports fell 18.8% to $US130.7 billion in October from the same month in 2014, slightly better than to 20.4% slide in September.

Exports fell 6.9% to $US192.4, deteriorating from the 3.7% dip in September.

That left China with a record high trade surplus of $US61.64 billion, the country’s General Administration of Customs said on Sunday. The figures confirm October was another month of weak demand domestically and internationally. For Australia, import volumes of iron ore and coal both fell, along with shipments of copper and oil, two key commodities.

Shipments to the United States dipped 0.9% on a year earlier, shipments to the European Union dropped 2.9% and to Japan they fell 7.7%.

Combined exports and imports are down 8.5% for the first 10 months of the year, well below the 6% official growth target envisaged for this year.

In the first 10 months of the year, Chinese exports to the US were up 5.2% from the same period in 2014, while exports to countries in Asean were up 3.7%. Exports to the EU, Japan and Hong Kong — which serves as a transit point for exports to many other parts of the world — fell by 4.1%, 9.5% and 12.2% respectively

But when you strip out the price changes, import volumes fell by a 2.6%, which confirms the picture of modest growth in demand in key areas, according to economists. Iron ore imports fell 12.3% to 75.52 million tonnes in October from the previous month and 4.9% from October, 2014.

In fact shipments for the first 10 months of the year reached 774.5 million tonnes, down half a per cent for the same period of 2014, thanks to the fall in world prices and a drop in high-cost, low quality domestic production.

Coal shipments in October, including lower-grade lignite, reached 13.96 million tonnes, down 21.4% from September and 30.7% t from a year ago. Volumes for the year so far reached 170.3 million tonnes, down 29.9% compared with the first 10 months of last year.

October crude oil deliveries fell 5.7% from September to 26.35 million tonnes, or a still high 6.2 million barrels a day.

Copper imports fell 8.7% from September, reaching 420,000 tonnes. Imports of anode, refined copper, alloy and semi-finished copper products reached a 20-month high of 460,000 tonnes in September.

And, soybean imports plunged 24% to 5.53 million tonnes, as supplies from South America fell and exports from North America still on the water. Imports are expected to rebound to around 7 million tonnes this month, according to the Chinese government.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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