It’s China’s turn this week to move to the forefront of market attention around the globe.
The Chinese economic data for November will be watched for further signs of improvement or at least stabilisation in the economy.
Tomorrow sees the release of trade data for last month – watch for details on the levels of imports of key commodities such as iron ore, coal, oil, copper, soybeans and exports of steel.
Overall exports are expected to be a tough higher and imports a little less negative, and the trade surplus is forecast to shrink a little.
The consumer and producer price inflation report for November will be out on Wednesday (both should not change very much from October), low consumer price pressures and deep deflation for manufacturing.
Bank lending and credit flows are out Thursday (and should be a touch higher), but on Saturday watch for stable to marginally stronger growth in industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment.
Retail sales are the one figure to watch – they are they only positive figure for China at the moment and analysts are using that strength to maintain their conviction that China’s economy is still expanding.
So expect annual retail sales growth around 11% (the highest reading in nearly a year if it happens) with industrial production growing around 5.7% and investment near 10.2% growth.
If retail sales figures come in under forecast, watch for nervous trading in western markets dependent on China, such as Australia. The severe air pollution levels in Beijing and North China late last month could also have an impact on industrial production and retail sales.
In Australia the jobs data for November are out on Thursday. But before then we get the long-awaited the innovation statement from the Federal Government later today.
They will be the most important local figures before the end of the year.
Economists are expecting a weak report after the strength of the October report.
The AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says we can expect a 10,000 fall in employment and unemployment to return to 6%. Comsec economists also see a rise in the jobless rate back to 6%.
Before that we get the ANZ job ads survey results for November later this morning. They have been very positive about the labour market’s improvement with growth reported in job ads (all on the internet) for more than a year. Job ads are actually up 13% in the past 12 months.
Housing finance data on Wednesday will show continued softness in lending to investors.
The NAB business conditions and confidence indexes (tomorrow) and the Westpac consumer confidence survey (Wednesday) will also be released.
The NAB surveys are the more important because they started picking up the mid-year improvement in business conditions earlier than other surveys.
The Bureau of Statistics releases the lending finance data for October on Friday with another rise in loans to business expected.
Across the Tasman, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its last interest rate decision for the year on Thursday – no change is expected.
In the US, November retail sales on Friday will give some guide as to how Christmas shopping has started out with a modest 0.3% gain expected (better than the weak 0.1% reading for October).
US producer price inflation is expected to remain low (also out Friday). Labour market indicators and small business confidence will also be released (tomorrow).
In Asia, Japan’s revised September quarter GDP data this week could see the contraction first reported last month, disappear thanks to stronger data from some areas.
The latest business investment data released last week points to the contraction seen in first GDP reported being revised away and a small rise in growth reported.
If that happens, Japan’s fourth recession in five years may be revised away.
In India, current account data is released later today, with industrial output data later in the week.
And in Europe, the latest revised third quarter GDP figures for the eurozone are out tomorrow.
The Bank of England releases its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday night, our time. No change is expected.
The Swiss National bank releases its policy decision on Thursday night as well – will it cut its key rate deeper into negative territory after the European central bank’s reduction last week?
