According to Reuters, China’s year on-year fall in exports in February was the steepest since May 2009 and imports were not all that healthy as well.
Exports fell to every major region – off 3.5% to Japan, more than 21% to the Asean countries, over 18% to Australia and the US, nearly 20% to Europe, more than 22% to Taiwan and 16% to South Korea.
That is not encouraging news and is starting to hint at a more fundamental weakness in demand for Chinese goods.
The Lunar New Year is not a factor – this year New Year’s Day fell on February 8, last year on February 19, and while the later date last year saw a lot of imports and exports bunched into the first two weeks of February, there should have been a rebound in exports in the final 10 days last month, plus a solid surge at the start to compensate.
Nothing of the sort happened, judging by yesterday’s data from the government.
Imports of a number of key commodities also declined over the month with coal down 11% and copper imports off 5%. However, oil imports bucked the trend and increased in February and iron ore imports rose year on year. China’s iron ore imports rose 8.3% to 73.61 million tonnes in February from a year ago, but fell 10% from the 82.19 million tonne imported in January.
The country’s customs administration said imports rose 6.4% in January – February to 155.8 million tonnes from the first two months of 2015.
February’s imports were nearly 25% down on the record 96.2 million tonnes imported in December.
And yet the world price is up 70% from the lows of around $US38 a tonne in late January – including that 19% surge on Monday of this week to more than $US63 a tonne.
China’s import demand figures do not justify that rapid price surge – so a big fall is in the offing. Prices dipped 0.2% yesterday after the 20% jump on Monday.The price yesterday was $US63.63 a dry tonne, according to Metal Bulletin data.
China’s steel exports rose 4% to 8.11 million tonnes in February from a year ago, but slumped nearly 17% from January. Exports in January-February dropped 1.3% to 17.85 million tonnes.
China’s coal imports including lignite continued to slide – down 11.3% in February to 13.54 million tonnes in February from a year ago, taking January-February shipments to 28.77 million tonnes, a fall of 10% from the same period last year.
China’s national customs administration said February crude oil imports jumped 20% from the same month a year ago to their highest ever on a daily basis of 8 million barrels.
Imports hit 31.80 million tonnes of crude last month, or a record 8 million barrels a day, up 27% from January’s 6.29 million barrels.
Chinese fuel exports in February rose 72% on a daily basis compared to the same month last year. They reached 2.99 million tonnes, or 721,700 barrels a day, after hitting a record 975,500 barrels a day in December, as China continues to export more diesel amid weakening domestic demand for the industrial fuel.
China’s imports of copper fell 4.5% from January to 420,000 tonnes in February, customs data showed. But they remained up sharply from the very low 280,000 tonnes recorded in February 2015.
Exports of semi-manufactured aluminium also fell sharply compared to the month before. The country exported 280,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium metal and aluminium products down from January’s 380,000 tonnes, according to figures from Reuters.
China’s soy imports rose 5.9% in February from a year earlier, but the 4.51 million tonnes of soy was down 20.3% on January’s imports of 5.66 million tonnes. The Lunar New Year was blamed.
