There’s a quiet week ahead with all the interest concentrated on Friday and the release of the US jobs data for March and the first day of the month surveys across the globe of manufacturing (and some service sector) activity, with the two from China the ones to watch for.
As well there’s the final estimate of UK 4th quarter, 2015 GDP growth, while Thursday marks the end of the March quarter, and the start of the earnings season for the US and some Eurozone companies.
And Thursday also marks the end of the first half of 2015-16 for a handful of Australian companies led by three of our big four banks – the NAB, ANZ and Westpac.
So watch for a number of banking analysts to be reworking their earnings forecasts in the light of the higher bad debt provisions revealed by the ANZ and Westpac on Thursday.
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen though grabs the focus tonight (actually early tomorrow morning) with a speech that will be closely watched for clues on interest rates particularly after some recent hawkish comments from Fed officials.
Friday’s final reading on US 4th quarter GDP growth (see separate story), has raised the odds of a rate rise sooner than later this year, and perhaps the chances of a second increase in December.
The Fed’s favourite measures of inflation and consumption were released overnight and again suggested that while weak, price pressures are starting to reappear in parts of the US economy.
The jobs report for the US is forecast to see around 200,000 new places created and for the jobless rate to remain steady at 4.9%.
Friday also sees the release of the usual start of month surveys of global manufacturing, starting with the issuing of the Chinese government survey, and then the private survey from Caixin later in the day.
Reports will be issued across the rest of the world over the next 12 hours – the US and eurozone surveys will be the most important outside China where economists are looking for a small improvement, but with the readings to have remained under the 50 point level that separates expansion (above) from contraction (below).
US home prices and consumer confidence data will be issued tonight, our time.
In the Eurozone, money supply and credit data for February is out tonight, along with the early reports on inflation in march (Thursday) and employment (Friday).
Both are not expected to contain anything startling, with the latter showing continuing low levels of cost pressures and the former more evidence of the continuing improvement in employment growth across most of the region.
UK 4th quarter GDP growth is forecast to remain at the 0.5% quarter on quarter growth rate in the previous estimate (and 2.4% for the year, weaker than Australia’s 3.0% growth).
Besides the two surveys of Chinese manufacturing (and one of services), the usual end of month data for Japan will be out this week.
That is expected to show continuing labour market strength but soft household spending (all due later today) and mixed industrial production (Wednesday).
Last week’s weak inflation data shows the Japanese economy remains stuck in a disinflationary rut and the huge spending campaign of the Bank of Japan has done little to change that or future expectations about inflation.
The quarterly Tankan business conditions survey will also be released Friday on the Bank of Japan. That tells us what many Japanese business think about their future sales, profits and investment.
In Australia, we get the Reserve Bank’s credit growth figures on Thursday for February and on Friday the monthly survey of Australian manufacturing and the Core Logic RP Data house price data is for March.
