Freed of the distortions around the timing of the Lunar New Year, China’s foreign trade performance improved markedly in March.
Figures from the country’s National Customers Administration revealed that China’s dollar-denominated exports rose 11.5% year on year in March, better than market forecasts for a 10% rise, while imports fell 7.6% against forecasts for a fall of just over 10%.
It was the 17th monthly fall in imports in a row, which reflects the slide in commodity prices in that time, led by oil and gas. Exports rose for the first time in nine months.
But the figures were helped by having a low basis of comparison, as exports plunged 15% year on year in March 2015 from the same month in 2014. Imports fell 12.7%. On that basis the March 2016 figures were under those for the same month in 2015.
But economists said the improvement was positive, as the IMF pointed out in its latest World Economic Forecast on Tuesday night when it lifted its estimate for Chinese growth for this year and next.
The dollar-denominated trade balance was $US29.86billion last month, down from the $US32.59 billion in February and well below forecasts of just under $US35 billion.
Month-on-month exports rose 27% in March, while imports jumped 40% from February. That was due to impact of the Lunar New Year falling in February – the week long break closes almost all Chinese business activity, especially ports.
Year-to-date, exports were down 9.6% in the first quarter from the same quarter of 2015, while imports dropped 13.5% (because of lower commodity prices, such as oil, gas, copper, coal, grains, oilseeds, iron ore, etc).
Exports to major trading partners improved – they rose 9% in March from a year earlier, and nearly 18% to the eurozone. Exports to ASEAN nations jumped nearly 15%, while those to Japan were up 9.3%.
China’s domestic currency-denominated exports rose 18.7% year-on-year in March, while imports fell 1.7%.
