A relatively quiet week in Australia and globally for major data releases.
In Australia, the minutes from the RBA’s last meeting (tomorrow) will be dated given the recent Statement on Monetary Policy from the central bank.
But some excitable folk will read them and jump on anything they claim is a further clue to the future movement of interest rates.
The major local data releases (and the ones with some appeal for the budget and the economy) will be the March quarter wages growth on Wednesday which are expected to remain low around 2.2% year on year, and the April labour market data on Thursday.
If we get a figure around 2.2% for wage growth, it will be the strongest growth in real wages for some time because of the sharp fall in inflation in the March quarter to an annual 1.3% (on a headline rate) and 1.55% for the RBA’s preferred measure.
Thursday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Statistics is expected to show weak jobs growth after the solid gain seen in March and a slight bounce in unemployment back to 5.8%, according to the AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver.
The jobs report will feed into the election debate, so watch for a lot of hot air to be generated on all sides as to its importance.
The local March 30 reporting season continues this week in a fitful fashion with Dulux (the paint group) reporting today.
Elders is also out this week, along with Oz Forex and Ruralco.
In the US, housing starts and industrial production (both Tuesday night, our time) and existing home sales (Friday night, our time), will be the major releases, along with the monthly consumer price inflation data for April which will likely show another rise in the monthly rate (thanks to the surge in oil prices) and perhaps a steady annual figure around 2% to 2.1%. .
The early manufacturing conditions surveys for the New York and Philadelphia regions will give an early guide as to how conditions are this month and the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting (Wednesday night, our time) are likely to confirm that the majority view at the Fed is cautious about further rate rises this year.
The US March quarter reporting season slows, with retailers dominating, led by Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowes Cos. Other big groups reporting include Campbell Soup, Hormel Foods, Salesforce.com, Cisco and Deere and Co
In Asia, Chinese house price data for April is out mid week, while the Bank of Japan will be scrutinising first quarter GDP results on Wednesday and Tuesday’s industrial production figures for April.
In Europe, updated labour market, inflation and retail sales data are meanwhile out in the UK and the eurozone will see the release of final consumer price figures for April, plus the latest trade figures (which will confirm that the huge German surplus continues to destabilise the eurozone economy).
GDP figures are released for Russia tonight and are expected to show more grim news on the economy’s slowdown.
