Oil Supply Bites In July

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

For commodities, gold and oil again dominated last month – the former gaining, the latter selling off to the point where it corrected into bear territory briefly on Friday.

Iron ore though had a good month – up 6.7%, but down 2.2% on Friday to end the month on $US59.37 a tonne. Copper prices were up just over 1%, and nickel and aluminium did well.

Oil is now being hit by weak consumption, especially in the US where the petrol stocks are higher than a year ago when everyone expected them to be drawn down by strong consumption by US motorists – oil stocks remain high, at record levels for this time of year.

The Financial Times reported that up to 14 million barrels of oil (two weeks output from the North Sea) were stored on tankers moored in UK waters.

Some analysts said it was because of technical reasons in the market pricing (future prices are higher than the spot, allowing a profit for hanging on to oil), others said land tank storage was at capacity.

Oil futures climbed on Friday as the US dollar was weaker, but West Texas Intermediate crude futures still lost about 14% for the month, the largest monthly percentage decline in a year.

Crude for September delivery rose 1.1%, to $US41.60 a barrel in New York. That was a loss of 5.9% for the week and 13.9% for the month. That in turn was the largest monthly loss since July 2015. Prices have fallen in three out of the seven months this year so far.

The current US futures price is now down nearly 19% from its recent high of $US51.23 a barrel in June.

In London, September Brent crude fell 0.6%, to $US42.46 a barrel. The contract expired at the settlement and October Brent which added 0.7%, to settle at $US43.53, became the front month. Based on the most-active contracts, Brent lost more than 12% for the month and was down over the week.

The weekly oil rig use data from Baker Hughes again did not help sentiment, showing a small rise in active oil rig use for a fifth week in a row. The number of active rigs drilling for oil rose by 3 to 374 rigs.

Gold futures rose on Friday night with a monthly gain of nearly 3%, after the weak US GDP report for the June quarter surprised investors and traders.

Gold rose as many investors now think the Fed won’t be lifting rates this year because US economic growth is far below acceptable levels.

Comex December gold jumped $US16.30, or 1.2%, to settle at $US1,357.50 an ounce in New York.

For the week, gold futures ended rose 2.6%, and 2.87% for July.

Gold futures prices have now risen in six out of the seven months so far this year.

Comex September silver also rose, adding 15.5 cents, or 0.8%, to $US20.347 an ounce. For the week, silver futures saw a 3.3% gain and surged 9.3% for the month.

On Comex, September copper added 1.3 cents, or 0.6%, to $US2.222 a pound, up about 1.2% for the month. And October platinum climbed $US11.70, or 1%, to $US1,150.60 an ounce, up over 12% for the month.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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