Jobs and wages will be the big issues this week in Australia, along with the first of the two-week peak of the Australian June 30 reporting season.
The July jobless data will be released on Thursday by the Bureau of Statistics, while the Bureau also releases the June quarter wages price index on Wednesday.
That could very well show a new low for wages growth in the June quarter and the year to June.
The AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver says the index would show “new record low of 2% year on year reinforcing the downwards pressure on inflation.”
And he also expects the July employment report to show new jobs growth to be “flat”.
"Employment data for July (Thursday) is expected to show flat employment after a high employment sample rotates out and given that recent forward looking job indicators have been more mixed lately. Unemployment is likely to rise slightly to 5.9%,” Dr Oliver wrote at the weekend.
Tomorrow sees the release of the minutes from the last RBA board meeting which are likely to confirm the dovish tone evident in the August Statement on Monetary Policy.
The June quarter earnings reporting season will ramp up in Australia as we move into the two busiest weeks for reports with 66 major companies due to report in the week ahead including JB HiFi, BHP Billiton, Wesfarmers, CSL, QBE, Origin, AMP, IAG, DUET, Lend Lease and Woodside Petroleum.
In the US there’s the minutes from the July Fed meeting (on Wednesday night, our time), housing starts data for June and building permits, also for June.
Tomorrow night our time sees the release of CPI inflation for July (the headline rate is expected to fall slightly to 0.9% year on year, with core inflation to remain unchanged at 2.3% year on year and industrial production (for July) to rise modestly.
Investors will also pay attention as a string of Fed speakers including, St Louis Fed president James Bullard and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart deliver speeches this week.
And the US June 30 quarterly reporting season continues to wind down (as does similar seasons offshore). The major report this week in the will be from giant retailer, Walmart.
In Europe the minutes from the ECB’s last meeting (Thursday night our time) are likely to confirm it remains in wait and see mode.
In Asia, Japanese June quarter GDP growth (later today) is likely to show growth slowing to just 0.2% quarter on quarter, after 0.5% in the March quarter, according to a forecast from Dr Oliver. There’s also the latest trade data in Japan mid week.
In China, the July house price data will be released on Thursday.
