It’s the usual start of month flow of data for this week that will torment, frustrate or encourage investors around the globe.
In the US and globally, the big focus will be on August jobs data (Friday) as the last major data release ahead of the Fed’s September 26-27th meeting.
Estimates range from around 130,000 new jobs, to between 180,000 and 200,000.
Economists think the jobless rate will dip to 4.8% (and they will be watching revisions to previous months, especially the massive 255,000 figure for July).
US wages growth is forecast to remain around to 2.6% year on year – and all this should be enough to keep the September Fed meeting “in play” for a hike, but not enough to make it probable.
Globally the major data release for a host of countries are the first of the month surveys of manufacturing activity – this time on Thursday.
But analysts will now look at the jobs data and other figures through the prism of those comments on Friday night, our time, from fed chair Janet Yellen and her deputy Stanley Fischer that built a case for at least one rate increase this year in the US ( December is more likely than September).
Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester and Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren are due to speak this week and are expected to add to the comments from Ms Yellen and Ms Fischer on Friday.
In all the discussion of the Yellen speech, the slight downgrade in the second estimate of US second quarter GDP (from an annual 1.2% to 1.1%) was overlooked.
It though is seen as history as there’s a growing feeling third quarter growth is much stronger than in the first half of this year – at least double by some early estimates.
In other US data expect there’s the important figures on personal spending and the much watched (by the Fed) core private consumption expenditure measure of inflation.
House price data is out, as is consumer confidence, pending home sales figures, the August manufacturing conditions survey on Thursday (and around the world) and the July the trade data on Friday.
The US June 30 reporting season is just about finished as well.
Canada’s June quarter GDP figures are out Thursday, along with Brazil’s. The latter is expected to show that the recession continues, perhaps with growth a little stronger.
Canada is expected to see the economy tip into recession thanks to the weakness in oil and gas prices and those fires in Alberta in May which hit oil production.
In fact GDP could have contracted by 1.5% in the second quarter (annual) after a 2.4% rise (annual) in the first quarter.
Eurozone economic confidence figures for August are out on Tuesday, along with the first of the month manufacturing activity surveys.
There’s a confidence vote in the Spanish parliament for PM Rajoy that if he loses could see Spain go the polls for a third time in a year,which the election possibly to be held on Christmas Day.
In Japan, there’s the manufacturing survey report on Thursday, but before then, jobless data and household spending (both tomorrow) and industrial production (on Wednesday). The inflation figures late last week showed the economy being dragged back down into its deflationary rut.
In China, the two manufacturing activity surveys are due to be released on Thursday, with service sector surveys also for release.
The AMP’s chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver says “both the official and Caixin PMIs are expected to remain around the 50 level consistent with GDP growth around 6.5% or a bit more.”
In Australia we start the run up to the June quarter GDP report on September 7, along with the usual start of the month data.
July building approvals are out tomorrow, the RBA July lending figures are out Wednesday credit and retail sales, also for July on Thursday.
Thursday also sees the June quarter business investment figures released. They are expected to be weak after the weak construction figures from last week.
Dr Oliver says “Capital spending intensions data will be watched closely for any improvement in the outlook for non-mining investment.
Thursday also sees the release of the Core Logic data on August home price. That will be watched to see whether recent strength in Sydney and Melbourne property prices has continued.
And the June 30 earnings season wraps up this week.
