The normal slow end of the month this week that will firstly be dominated by the OPEC chat around an energy industry meeting in Algeria, and then the first US Presidential debate early tomorrow morning that could be watched by 100 million or more Americans.
The first debate is Tuesday (around 11am Sydney time) then there the Vice Presidential candidates’ debate on October 4, the second Presidential Debate on October 9 and the final 10 days later.
Each debate will be broadcast live on C-SPAN, ABC, CBS, FOX, Univision and NBC, as well as all cable news channels including CNN, Fox News and MSNBC among others.
Given the publicity and general dislike of both candidates, the debates could be among the most-watched events on US TV this year.
With the Fed and Bank of Japan decisions out of the way and no agreement tipped at the OPEC meeting, the viewers of who won and lost tonight’s debate could very well drive sentiment on markets for much of this week.
And while Europe remains pre-occupied with Brexit and the UK, Italy this week starts the countdown toward a high-stakes referendum on constitutional reform.
The Italian cabinet is to decide in a meeting on tonight, our time, on the date for the referendum on whether to accept the reforms already passed by parliament.
Polls suggest the vote — expected in November or December — could be close, and if its defeated, out goes Prime Minister Matteo Renzi who has staked his job on the vote.
With OPEC members plus Russia due to hold an informal meeting in Algiers this week, the chances of any agreement on freezing output have receded after a big sell off in oil on Friday in global markets.
In Europe, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks at the European Parliament tonight, our time and investors will be looking for any more guidance on the central bank’s easing program.
September inflation data due on Friday from the euro zone will give the ECB food for thought, with economists polled by Reuters expecting on average an increase to 0.4%, which would be the highest rate since January. Early employment data for the eurozone will also be out late in the week.
In the US, there’s a handful of Fed policymakers due to make public appearances that may offer insight into how divided they are about raising rates.
St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester, Fed governor Jerome Powell and Kansas City Fed president Esther George, all voting members of the so-called Federal Open Market Committee, are due to speak this week.
Fed chair, Janet Yellen is due to speak in a moderated conversation at a bankers’ conference in Kansas City.
The main US indicators to watch are consumer confidence (tomorrow night, our time), durable goods orders (Wednesday night, our time) the August personal consumption data and deflator (Friday night, our time and the one used by the Fed) New home sales data is out tonight, our time, along with pending sales figures later in the week.
The major US data release though is the third and final estimate of June quarter GDP on Thursday night, our time.
In Japan August data will be released on Friday and according to the AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver is expected “to show that labour market indicators remain strong and industrial production bounced, but that household spending has weakened and inflation remains at -0.5% yoy.”
In China Friday’s Caixin manufacturing activity survey and the official survey results on Saturday are expected to show little change.
In Australia, credit data on Friday will show moderate growth. Data on job vacancies & new home sales figures are also due.
But this week is more important for the September 30 balance date for a number of companies such as four big banks – Macquarie (first half), NAB, Westpac, ANZ (second half and final), Orica, full year, CSR half year, James Hardie quarterly and Incitec Pivot, full year.
